UFC Middleweight bout: Ed Herman vs. Tim Credeur
Odds: (-135 Herman /-105 Credeur )
Betting Pick: Credeur
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In a featured Middleweight bout, tough wrestler Ed “Short Fuse” Herman will square off against another Ultimate Fighter alum in Louisiana’s Tim “Crazy” Credeur. Herman is a tough bruiser with great takedowns and top control, but Credeur has serious striking prowess and a top-level submission game, so Herman is going to need a really solid game plan if he wants to avoid falling into Credeur’s best areas. With both of these guys coming off a loss, they have a lot to fight for here in order to maintain their place in the company, since neither guy is a very established star or at the top of the Middleweight division.
Ed Herman, who originally debuted as a member of Team Shamrock on The Ultimate Fighter 3, is a very skilled wrestler with solid top control, punishing ground and pound, underrated submissions from top position, and fairly decent boxing. While he is hardly an overpowering striker and he lacks in technique, he does have heavy hands and he uses his boxing to set up his takedowns fairly well. The big hole in his game is his submission defense, which is notoriously porous. Against a grappler on Credeur’s level, that could be a big problem, so he is going to have to be careful on top if he doesn’t want to get choked out.
Tim Credeur also made his way to UFC through the Ultimate Fighter series, and has carved out a nice niche for himself. A solid technical striker with knockout power, Credeur’s best work still comes on the ground, where he has submissions from every position. Credeur is a consummate finisher, having never won a fight by decision and only having gone the distance once in his professional career. There is no question he can outstrike Herman, the question is how well he will be able to work off his back underneath Herman’s stifling top control.
I think this matchup favors Credeur. On the feet he has a clear advantage in terms of technique, hand speed, and accuracy. It is unlikely he will be able to prevent Herman from taking him down for the entire fight, but he is great off his back and Herman is notorious for getting too aggressive on top and leaving himself open for submissions, especially triangle chokes. Herman is going to have no choice but to take this fight to the ground, since Credeur is a vastly superior striker, but I don’t like his chances of staying on top of Credeur for three rounds without presenting an opening. Credeur by submission.
Prediction: Tim Credeur via second round armbar.
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