UFC Welterweight bout: Rick Story vs. Thiago Alves
Odds: ( +160 Story / -200 Alves )
Betting Pick: ALVES
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In a featured Welterweight bout, Rick “Horror” Story looks for his sixth consecutive win against slumping former title challenger Thiago “Pitbull” Alves. Story has been on a roll recently, putting together five wins in a row by utilizing his solid wrestling and versatile offense. Alves, on the other hand, has been disappointing lately, but is still a devastating striker with amazing takedown defense who matches up very well with Story stylistically, so this is an interesting fight.
Rick “Horror” Story is a very effective wrestler who mixes up his offense well with solid striking and good submissions from top position. He is not always a finisher, but he is a very effective grinder who stays in his opponents’ faces and wears them down with wrestling, top control, ground and pound, and clinch work. He is also extremely durable, having never been finished as a professional. Against Alves, who is a vastly superior striker, he is going to need to keep his distance on the feet and try to use his jab to set up takedowns, which is no small feat considering how good Alves’ takedown defense is.
Thiago “Pitbull” Alves is one of the better strikers in the Welterweight division. He has devastating punching, some of the best leg kicks in the sport, and can devastate opponents in the clinch. Much like a prime Chuck Liddell, what makes Alves so special as a striker is his ability to keep fights on the feet, employing sprawl and brawl tactics to punish grapplers who try to wrestle him down. He doesn’t have much of a ground game, really, but his ability to thwart takedowns and make opponents pay for their attempts make him an extremely devastating fighter.
I don’t think this is a particularly favorable matchup for Story. He is not inept on his feet, but he is not in Alves’ league, and his wrestling is not dominant enough to negate Alves’ incredible takedown defense. Story is extremely tough and durable, so I would be surprised if Alves finished him for the first time in his career, but I think Alves will frustrate him by stopping his takedown attempts and punish him on the feet for the unanimous decision win.
Prediction: Thiago “Pitbull” Alves via Unanimous Decision.
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