UFC Heavyweight bout: Frank Mir vs. Roy Nelson
Odds: (-120 Mir / -110 Nelson )
Betting Pick: NELSON
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In the semi-main event, former Heavyweight champion Frank Mir faces a big challenge, literally and figuratively, in the form of Roy “Big Country” Nelson. This is an interesting fight in that these guys have completely opposite physiques but extremely similar styles. Both guys have slick and effective jiu-jitsu games and technical, powerful striking. This is a very interesting match because these guys seem evenly matched in every way, which could result in a boring stalemate or a very exciting and competitive fight.
Roy Nelson, who made a name for himself in the IFL before dominating his way through The Ultimate Fighter, is a great fighter who doesn’t necessarily look the sport. Nelson’s bulbous physique is extremely misleading, because he is actually quite light on his feet and has excellent cardio. If anything, his weight is something of an advantage, because he has learned to use his considerable bulk as a way of neutralizing opponents on the ground, especially in the crucifix position. Nelson’s jiu-jitsu is extremely underrated, which is important against a skilled grappler like Mir. He also has very effective wrestling, although he tends to favor his striking game a lot of the time. On the feet he is deceptively fast, has good technique, and solid punching power. The biggest flaw in Nelson’s game is that despite having a very complete skill set, he tends to get locked into one aspect of his game instead of mixing it up and keeping his opponents off-balance.
Frank Mir, the former Heavyweight champion, is an extremely inspiring story. Once at the top of the division, Mir’s life and career were derailed by a near-fatal motorcycle accident that sent him right back to square one. After a rocky restart to his career, Mir has worked his way back to being one of UFC’s better Heavyweights. Obviously, Mir’s base is his jiu-jitsu, which is extremely good, especially for a Heavyweight. Unlike most guys his size, Mir is quite comfortable working off his back and has submissions from every position. Recently, though, he has also developed into an extremely formidable striker, with decent Muay Thai and very powerful boxing. The big flaw in Mir’s game is that his wrestling, both offensively and defensively, are decidedly subpar. His jiu-jitsu is very good, but he lacks the takedowns that would allow him to set him up his ground game effectively.
This is an interesting matchup for a lot of reasons. Both of these guys can bang, and both have great submissions on the ground. The biggest difference between the two of them is that Nelson has effective wrestling and positional control, whereas Mir depends on big punches and catching guys with submissions off his back. I think that is going to make the difference in this fight. Both guys have good chins and it is unlikely that either will be able to submit the other, but I think Nelson’s ability to force the fight to the ground and control position from the top, coupled with his more technically proficient striking, should be enough to earn him the unanimous decision win and a moderate upset.
Prediction: Roy “Big Country” Nelson via Decision.
- Bet on the Underdog Nelson @ -110 Odds.
- Note – Nelson went from +110 to -110 odds
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