UFC Light Heavyweight bout: Randy Couture vs. Lyoto Machida
Odds: (+250 Couture /-325 Machida )
Betting Pick: Machida
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In the third bout of the evening, UFC Hall of Famer and former Heavyweight and Light Heavyweight champion Randy “The Natural” Couture squares off with slippery striker and former Light Heavyweight champion Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida. Couture is a true legend of the sport, but he is on the tail end of his storied career, while Machida is in the middle of a 2 fight losing streak after winning the first 16 fights of his professional career. This is an important fight for both guys as well as an interesting style matchup, which makes this a very compelling addition to the card.
Randy Couture is one of the most well-respected and popular fighters in Mixed Martial Arts history. A Greco-Roman wrestler who has continually defied age and expectations, Couture’s is one of the most uplifting stories in all of sports. He is an extremely tough fighter with a lot of physical strength and remarkable cardio, and few fighters in the world are as effective as he is at controlling opponents in the clinch and abusing them with dirty boxing. Despite his stellar wrestling background, Couture’s takedowns have never been overly dominant. He prefers to use the clinch up against the cage to bully his opponents around and wear them down. His boxing is actually quite underrated, and he has solid submissions, but is probably not as good as Machida in either of those areas. As per usual, his best bet is going to be his wall and stall and dirty boxing tactics.
Lyoto Machida, up until recently, looked to be one of the most dominant Light Heavyweights in the world. A slick and effective striker who is notoriously difficult to hit, Machida’s ultra-defensive counter punching style make him an extremely frustrating opponent for anyone. He also has solid defensive wrestling and a very underrated ground game in general. There is no question at all that he is a superior striker to Couture, or that he has better handspeed and footwork. The question is how well he will be able to maintain range and keep Couture from shoving him up against the cage and controlling him physically.
In the end, I think this one favors Machida. Couture’s boxing is pretty good, but Machida is clearly the faster, more mobile, and more effective striker. Couture’s entire career has been a story of defying his age, but eventually time catches up with everyone, and Machida is the best and most complete opponent Couture has had to face in years. I think Machida will continually beat Couture to the punch, and his back-pedaling, mobile style are going to make it difficult for Couture to keep him in one place. Machida should be able to score enough points on the feet and play enough defense in the clinch to earn the unanimous decision win.
Prediction: Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida via unanimous decision.
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