UFC Light Heavyweight bout: Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs. Phil Davis
Odds: (+260 Nogueira /-340 Davis )
Betting Pick: DAVIS
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In the main event of the evening, PRIDE veteran Antonio Rogerio “Minotoro” Nogueira, also known as Little Nog, will face a stiff challenge in the form of undefeated prospect Phil Davis. Davis is a young and promising fighter, but Little Nog represents a big step up in competition for him. Nogueira is very versatile and experienced as well, in spite of his recent disappointing performances, so he is a good test of just how ready Davis is to step into the deep end of the Light Heavyweight division.
Phil Davis is one of the most exciting up and coming prospects at 205 pounds. Davis seems to be the complete package so far, with dominant wrestling, heavy hands, and very good submissions. He is physically very strong, but he also has a lot of technique both standing and on the ground to go with his physical gifts. The only question is how he will handle a top 205 pounder, since he has fought mainly lesser opponents up until now.
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, who was once one of PRIDE’s top Light Heavyweights, has since fallen off a bit. He is an extremely technically proficient boxer, and he has some of the best jiu-jitsu in the world at Light Heavyweight, so offensively he is a very dangerous fighter. His problem since coming to the UFC has been dealing with physically superior fighters and dominant wrestlers. Davis is both, so unless Nogueira wants to continue his slide he is going to have to figure out a way to deal with a stronger fighter and work off his back.
I think that Nogueira is going to have his hands full in this one. In his last fight, he was outwrestled easily and given a lot of trouble on the feet by Ryan Bader. Davis is stylistically similar to Bader, but he is a superior athlete with more devastating punching and probably better wrestling as well. I think Nogueira is going to have to fight defensively on his feet to avoid Davis’ power, and he won’t be able to stop Davis from taking him down at will. Nogueira is dangerous off his back, but Davis has good jiu-jitsu and is a beast from top position, so it is going to be hard for Little Nog to assert himself off his back. I think Davis will control this one bell to bell and earn the unanimous decision win.
Prediction: Phil “Mr. Wonderful” Davis via Unanimous Decision.
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