UFC Lightweight bout: Jim Miller vs. Kamal Shalorus
Odds: (-270 Miller /+210 Shalorus )
Betting Pick: MILLER
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In the opening bout of the evening, prolific grappler Jim Miller faces a stiff challenge in the form of undefeated wrestling dynamo Kamal Shalorus. Miller is very well-rounded and has spectacular submissions, but Shalorus is an extremely dominant wrestler who, despite his lack of submission finishes, has extremely underrated jiu-jitsu of his own. Miller has the added advantage of being more experienced and having fought much better competition, but he is still going to have his hands full with Shalorus’ dominant grappling game.
Kamal Shalorus, an Iranian-born wrestler, is undefeated so far as a professional. The closest he has come to tasting defeat was a draw against dangerous opponent Jamie Varner. Shalorus’ wrestling is extremely formidable, and he is a terror from top position, able to dish out a serious amount of punishment with his dangerous ground and pound. His submission game has not been showcased very much, but it is actually very effective, as he has proved with big wins in Abu Dhabi and elsewhere. His striking is certainly not world-class, but it isn’t horrible either, and Miller isn’t the kind of guy who is going to easily capitalize on that hole in his game.
Miller, a very experienced and effective veteran, is easily one of the top Lightweight contenders in the UFC. A veteran of over 20 fights, his only two losses are to Gray Maynard and Frankie Edgar, the two men who fought to a draw for the UFC Lightweight Title recently. He has never been finished as a professional, and more than half of his wins have come by way of submission. Clearly his ground game is extremely formidable, but he also has serviceable boxing with great defense and rather underrated wrestling.
I don’t think this is a very good style matchup for Shalorus. Miller is the better striker, although neither of them is particularly scary on the feet. Shalorus is the better wrestler, but Miller is also very effective and the gap is much more narrow than it is on the feet. Perhaps most importantly, Miller has submissions from every position on a level Shalorus has never had to deal with, not to mention incredible sweeps and escapes. Shalorus has a tendency to abandon his wrestling anyway, which is not going to help him here. I think Miller will win the striking exchanges, and his superior submission prowess is going to hamper Shalorus’ offense on the ground. I think this is going to be a close, hard-fought, and competitive fight, and neither guy is going to able to finish the other, but Miller should be able to do enough to earn the decision nod.
Prediction: Jim Miller via Decision.
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