Lightweight bout: Ross Pearson vs. Cole Miller
Odds: (-275 Pearson / +215 Miller )
Betting Pick: Ross Pearson
In the first of three featured Lightweight contests, Team Rough House’s Ross “The Real Deal” Pearson will take on submission wizard Cole “Magrinho” Miller in what should be a very competitive contest. Pearson is currently riding a four fight win streak and is undefeated in the UFC, while Miller has won three of his last four against solid competition. Both guys are stuck in the middle of the crowded Lightweight pack, and both have formidable ground games, so this is a nice bit of matchmaking on Joe Silva’s part.
Cole Miller, who trains at American Top Team, has the kind of serious grappling you expect out of that camp. He has great submissions from every position and a pretty solid wrestling game to help him set up his ground work. On the ground he is as good as almost anyone in the division. The problem is that his takedown attempts are very predictable because he doesn’t have a very complete striking attack to complement his grappling. He can strike a little bit, but his defense is questionable and his technique and power are both mediocre. If he can force the issue on the ground he has a very good chance of winning, but if he can’t control the pace and positioning he is going to be in for a long night.
Pearson, one of the many up and coming British fighters to make their way into UFC over the last few years, is not as good at anything as Miller is at jiu-jitsu. He makes up for it, though, by being the much more complete fighter. His submissions are pretty good, as are his wrestling and boxing. He will not be able to outgrapple Miller, but he is probably good enough to hold Miller off from top position. On the feet he should be able to come out ahead in most of the exchanges, and his wrestling is probably good enough that he can decide whether or not he wants this fight to wind up on the ground. He just has to be careful not to get too enthusiastic, because Miller is more than capable of making him pay for any mistakes.
I think this matchup favors Pearson, stylistically. There is no doubt that Miller is his toughest test to date, and that Miller is the superior ground fighter, but I think Pearson’s well-roundedness is going to make the difference in this one. He should be able to avoid Miller’s ground attack and do enough on the feet to earn the unanimous decision.
Prediction: Ross “The Real Deal” Pearson via unanimous decision.
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