Welterweight bout: Nate Diaz vs. Marcus Davis
Odds: (-200 Diaz /+160 Davis )
Betting Pick: Nate Diaz
In the opening bout of the evening, skilled boxer “The Irish Hand Grenade” Marcus Davis will face off with rangy grappler Nathan Diaz in a Welterweight bout. Davis is primarily known as a striker while Diaz is known as a grappler, but in fact Diaz has very unorthodox but effective boxing and Davis has more wins by submission than by knockout, so both of these guys are actually quite well-rounded.
Marcus Davis, who made his way into the UFC by way of The Ultimate Fighter Season 2, has had a very successful career inside the Octagon so far. Although he has lost two of his last three, Davis has put together a very solid UFC record courtesy of his top-notch boxing and a substantially underrated ground game. While he is in fact a skilled ground fighter, though, Davis is going to want no part of Diaz on the ground, and if he wins this fight to make it two in a row, he is going to have to do it by beating Diaz to the punch and keeping this fight upright.
His opponent, Nathan Diaz, also entered the UFC through The Ultimate Fighter, having won season five with a series of strong performances. Afterward, he put together a good record inside the Octagon despite a few extremely questionable decision losses, including to Clay Guida and Gray Maynard. In his last fight, Diaz followed in his brother Nick’s footsteps and moved up to 170 pounds, where he looked dominant in easily dispatching skilled IFL veteran Rory Markham with a barrage of punches. While he lacks Davis’ technical acumen and one-shot power, Diaz is a very skilled boxer who can keep peppering opponents with shots from a massive variety of angles. Just as importantly, he is one of the more dangerous submission threats in the Welterweight division, so Davis is going to have to be wary of his attack no matter where the fight goes.
Stylistically, I think this fight favors Diaz. Davis is a very solid and traditional boxer, but Diaz is rangy and has a very difficult style to crack. More importantly, Diaz has the superior ground game and the superior ability to take the fight to the ground, especially from the clinch. If Diaz starts to work over Davis in the boxing, Davis really has no recourse, whereas Diaz can get himself out of trouble by clinching up and trying to put Davis on his back with one of his often-spectacular judo throws. I see Diaz scoring a few points with takedowns, controlling the fight on the ground, and frustrating Davis on the feet with his strange angles and awkward movement to earn a unanimous decision victory.
Prediction: Nate Diaz via unanimous decision.
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