Lightweight Championship bout: Frankie Edgar vs. B.J. Penn
Odds: (-300 Penn /+220 Edgar )
Betting Pick: BJ Penn
The main event is a huge rematch for the Lightweight title, with champion Frankie “The Answer” Edgar looking to retain his belt against the man he just took it from, BJ “The Prodigy” Penn. Their first fight ended with a controversial decision, as many felt that Penn did enough to win three of the five rounds despited the ridiculously lopsided scores. The question is whether Penn will be able to assert himself better, or if Edgar really has “The Answer” for Penn’s multi-faceted attack.
The champ, Frankie Edgar, is an extremely well-rounded fighter. Although he is not a prolific submission finisher, his jiu-jitsu is very good and he is extremely difficult to submit. In a similar vein, his boxing is not very powerful but his accuracy, footwork, and head movement are top notch, which makes him very difficult to hit and very adept and counterpunching. Where he really shines, though, is in the wrestling, which he proved by being the first and only Lightweight who ever managed to take down BJ Penn. His slippery boxing style coupled with dominant takedowns and good submission defense make him one of the toughest fighters in the world to come out with a win against.
Obviously, BJ Penn is one of the most dynamic fighters in the world. A very technical boxer with a good amount of punching power, Penn is also one of the best jiu-jitsu artists in the world, having never been submitted and holding a whole host of impressive submission wins. His takedown defense is also notoriously hard to crack, although Edgar did manage it in their last fight. The one problem Penn is going to face more than any other is that his offensive wrestling just isn’t good enough to take Edgar down. He could probably dominate from top position on the ground, but to get there he is probably going to have to get taken down himself and sweep Edgar, and that is a daunting task for anyone.
Personally, I thought that Penn won the first fight with Edgar, although it was certainly very close. It is clear that Penn has a better chance of finishing the fight, with punches or on the ground with a submission, but Edgar has also never been finished and is extremely resilient and hard to get a hold of. Still, I think Penn’s gameplan will be much more aggressive this time around and that he will win the boxing exchanges enough and stop Edgar’s takedowns enough to actually earn the decision.
Prediction: BJ “The Prodigy” Penn via unanimous decision.
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