Middleweight Championship bout: Ronaldo Souza vs. Tim Kennedy
Odds: (-295 Souza /+235 Kennedy )
The semi-main event is a big middleweight showdown between grappling ace Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza and tough, well-rounded army veteran Tim Kennedy. Kennedy has a very complete game, with good striking, wrestling, and ground work, but Jacare has some of the best jiu-jitsu in the sport, so Kennedy is going to have his hands full.
It would be almost impossible to overstate how good Jacare’s submission game is. From every position, he is a constant threat to finish the fight, and he is extremely good at working one submission into another into another until he can lock something in and put his opponent away. The rest of his game is still coming along, although in recent fights his standup has looked fairly crisp. He is not a dangerous striker by any means, but he isn’t totally lost in the boxing game like some other competitive jiu-jitsu tryouts. The most important thing here is going to be his ability to get the fight to the ground. His wrestling is not dominant and Kennedy is fairly solid, so he is going to have to be tricky if he wants to get this fight on the floor and avoid getting boxed around. Don’t be surprised if he opts to simply pull guard and try to work sweeps from his back.
Tim Kennedy is no slouch in the submission game himself, having finished half of his victories with submissions and having fought some very tough submission fighters and survived, including Jason “Mayhem” Miller, who Kennedy fought twice and beat once. In fact, Kennedy has never been finished by submission in his entire career. An army veteran with a very well-rounded skill set, Kennedy is one of the toughest guys in the Middleweight division to finish, or even to take off his game. The key to him winning this fight is versatility. He can’t make the mistake of trying to out-grapple Jacare. Instead, he needs to try to work his range standing, stuff takedowns, and maybe surprise Jacare with a few takedowns of his own.
If this were a three round fight, I would give Kennedy a very good chance of landing enough shots and controlling the action enough to earn a decision win, but in a five round fight I think his chances of avoiding Jacare’s submissions are pretty low. Eventually Jacare will find a way to tie Kennedy up on the ground, probably in the later rounds, and earn the submission victory.
Prediction: Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza via round four submission.
To add a little excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Sportsbook.com Odds. They allow you to start with as little as $20, and you can bet on all of the fights for the night. Check out my review of Sportsbook here…
