Heavyweight bout: Roy Nelson vs. Junior Dos Santos
Odds: (+230 Nelson / -290 Dos Santos )
Betting Pick: Roy Nelson
The evening’s first televised bout is a huge heavyweight clash, and that is not a Roy Nelson fat joke. The Ultimate Fighter Season 10 winner will battle top-level striker Junior dos Santos with a shot at the Lesnar/Velasquez winner on the line, making this the biggest fight of both men’s careers.
Dos Santos is probably the most devastating striker in the Heavyweight division. His boxing and Muay Thai are disgustingly effective, he has great defense, and he can knock people out with all four limbs. Thusfar, he has finished all of his UFC fights in the first round. Despite how dominant he has looked so far, though, there are some questions about dos Santos still. For one thing, his chin has never been tested because he has steamrolled his opponents too fast, and Nelson has the punching power to test it. More importantly though, no one knows how good his takedown and submission defense are. Coming from Team Noguiera it is unlikely that his ground game is awful, but if Nelson can take him down at will he is going to be in trouble.
Nelson, an IFL veteran who breezed his way to the Ultimate Fighter 10 title, is a very well-rounded and impressive fighter despite his distinctly rotund physique. Nelson has heavy hands and a solid chin, but he is most impressive on the ground in top position, where he uses his bulk to complement his technique and is extremely good at preventing his opponents from moving around. While his boxing is good, he is not going to be able to win a standup war with dos Santos save by a lucky punch, but if he plays it smart and takes dos Santos down he has a great chance of pulling off the huge upset.
I think Nelson is easily the best upset pick of the night. Dos Santos is a monster on his feet, but he has never faced anyone capable of testing his ground game, and Nelson is a solid wrestler with black belt jiu-jitsu. I see Dos Santos swinging for the fences and getting dumped on his back with Nelson on top of him. After some ground and pound, Nelson secures a choke and pulls off the upset of the night.
Prediction: Roy “Big Country” Nelson via rear naked choke.
- Bet on Big Country to pull off the upset win @+230 for a big pay day.
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