Welterweight bout: Jon Fitch vs. Thiago Alves
Odds: (-125 Fitch /-105 Alves )
Betting Pick: Jon Fitch
In the co-main event, top Welterweights Jon Fitch and Thiago Alves will meet in a highly-anticipated rematch. In their first matchup, Alves was getting the best of it before Fitch caught him with a stiff upkick and then piled on him with punches for the stoppage victory. Will Alves finish what he started last time, or will Fitch come in with a different gameplan and take a second victory?
Alves is a very formidable striker who has knockout power in both hands and both knees. He can devastate opponents from range or work them over with a dangerous clinch game, although tying up with Fitch in the clinch might not be his best plan for success. There is no doubt whatsoever that he can and will outstrike Fitch, the question is whether he can force Fitch to keep his distance and prevent the clinch and takedowns. He is also coming off a one-year layoff, so it will be interesting to see whether he looks rusty or whether the time off has given him time to get healthy and work on his takedown defense.
Fitch, while he is far from the most exciting fighter in the division, is nevertheless one of the most effective. While he has solid boxing, Fitch shines in the clinch, where he is absolutely stifling, and from top position where he can control the pace of the fight. If he wants to win this fight, though, he is going to need a better game plan than he had last time. If he tries to trade with Alves for any period of time he is going to get himself into trouble, but if he can work his clinch game, use the fence to stall, and execute his takedowns he has a great chance of winning.
Even though Alves was clearly getting the better of their first fight, I think this one is Fitch’s to lose. For one thing, their first fight was a long time ago, and for another Fitch has been active while Alves has been out for a year and had major surgery. Alves will assuredly get his shots in, but I think Fitch will play this safe and stifle his offense against the fence, score points with short takedowns, and ride it out for an uninspiring decision win.
Prediction: Jon Fitch via unanimous decision.
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