Welterweight bout: Paulo Thiago vs. Martin Kampmann
Odds: (-280 Thiago / +220 Kampmann )
The third bout of the evening promises to be a very competitive welterweight contest, as well-rounded Brazilian Paulo Thiago faces yet another stern test in the form of Martin Kampmann. Thiago has had a very successful run in UFC despite a string of tough challenges, but Kampmann is another tough obstacle to overcome, so this should be a great fight.
Martin Kampmann was one of the toughest and most well-rounded fighters at 185 pounds, but decided to drop to 170 after suffering a one-sided loss against Nate Marquardt. He is just as dangerous at Welterweight as he was at Middleweight, with great wrestling, great boxing, and a very solid submission game. The only hole in Kampmann’s game is his chin, with all three of his career losses having come by T/KO. That means he is going to have to be cautious against Thiago, who proved against Josh Koscheck that he has one punch knockout power.
Thiago, a Brazilian swat team cop who just so happens to be a top-notch Welterweight, carved out a niche for himself by going 2-1 against the highly respected AKA Welterweights early in his UFC stint. Thiago has not been handled with kid gloves at all, but his mix of solid boxing, punching power, and deadly submissions has allowed him to keep pushing his way forward to the top of the division. Against Kampmann, he is going to have to be wary of the takedown, because in that area Kampmann is probably the more effective fighter.
Stylistically, this is an interesting matchup. Both men have great submissions and both have knockout power. The edge in power and submissions probably goes slightly to Thiago, but Kampmann has the superior wrestling and takedowns, which could be a problem for Thiago, who was somewhat shut down by Fitch’s stifling clinch game and wrestling. Still, I think Thiago is just a little too tough and well-rounded, and will eventually catch Kampmann with some hard shots and exploit his suspect chin. Thiago by T/KO.
Prediction: Paulo Thiago via second round T/KO.
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