Heavyweight bout: Todd Duffee vs. Mike Russow
Odds: ( -450 Duffee / +325 Russow)
In the third bout of the show, undefeated prospect Todd Duffee will look to take another step toward a future title shot against dangerous contender Mike Russow in a classic striker versus grappler matchup. Duffee has completely shellacked all his opponents in the very first round, but Russow’s ground game is really good for a heavyweight, and he has a big experience advantage, so this should be a great fight.
Todd Duffee is one of the hottest up and coming prospects in the Heavyweight division. He is still early in his career, so his level of competition has not been very high thusfar, but he has handled every step up in spectacular fashion. In his UFC debut, he blasted tough fighter Tim Hague into unconsciousness in a mere seven seconds. Clearly, his standup is formidable, to put it mildly, since not one of his opponents has made it out of the first round. The question is how well his takedown defense and ground game have been coming along. It’s hard to tell how good, or bad, his wrestling and ground game might be, because he has so thoroughly overwhelmed his opponents that it has never really been tested. Considering that he trains out of Randy Couture’s camp, there is reason to believe he at least has some wrestling, but Russow is a great opponent to test how complete Duffee’s game really is at this point.
Russow, who is coming off a nice decision win over Justin McCully in his UFC debut, has an extremely dangerous ground game and one of the highest rates of wins by submission in the heavyweight division. There is no question that his standup is worse than Duffee’s, but he is very good at securing takedowns, controlling the fight on the ground, and exploiting tiny openings to lock up the submission. Russow will also enter this fight with a big edge in experience, both in terms of number of fights and quality of opposition.
I think that Russow is in a great position to play spoiler. Duffee is a considerable betting favorite for this one, but it’s hard to simulate the kind of bad positions Russow can put him in during training sessions. Clearly, Duffee has the tools to knock Russow into a coma, but he has never had to deal with adversity at any point in any of his pro fights, and Russow has the perfect style to put him in bad spots.
Prediction: Mike Russow via second round submission.
- At +325, I think Russow is a great underdog pick, and he should take this one by submission.
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