Lightweight Championship bout: Gilbert Melendez vs. Shinya Aoki
Odds: (Melendez / Aoki)
In the first of a remarkable three consecutive title bouts, recently crowned Lightweight champion Gilbert Melendez will defend his title against Japan’s top Lightweight, prolific submission fighter Shinya Aoki. Aoki, a controversial figure in Japan for his over the top antics, is easily the most creative and effective submission fighter in the sport, but Melendez is a well-rounded beast with great jiu-jitsu of his own, so this is a great matchup.
Aoki, who is known for his “bad guy” antics, his rainbow-colored fight pants, and his seemingly unstoppable jiu-jitsu, is one of the most entertaining and dynamic fighters in the world. While State Athletic Commission rules will prevent the pants from making an appearance, you can bet on the fact that Aoki’s submission game will be in full effect come fight night. It’s hard to describe Aoki’s submission game without gushing, because no one in the sport has submitted as many top-level opponents as he has and certainly not in as spectacular a fashion. Unfortunately, Aoki’s submission prowess is not backed up by even decent boxing or top-level wrestling. On the ground, he can and will catch anyone, but he might find it difficult to take down a strong wrestler like Melendez, and he lacks the tools to stand with even a mediocre boxer.
Melendez also has excellent jiu-jitsu, although it would be foolish to assume that he has what it takes to last with Aoki in a pure grappling match. Fortunately for him, though, this is not going to be a pure grappling match, and probably won’t be a grappling match at all unless Melendez decides to make it one. In the wrestling and standup, Melendez can and will dominate Aoki completely. He just has to be careful in close and not let Aoki pull off something spectacular, which he is prone to do.
Stylistically, Melendez is a nightmare for Aoki. On the ground, Aoki is clearly superior, but Melendez is good enough that he isn’t going to give up anything spectacular. It is highly unlikely that will even be an issue though, as Melendez will easily crush any attempts Aoki makes to take the fight down, and in the standup he will overwhelm Aoki with ease. Aoki is one of the top Lightweights on Earth for a reason, but styles make fight, and Melendez will T/KO Aoki without significant difficulty.
Prediction: Gilbert “El Nino” Melendez via second round T/KO.
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