155 lbs: Jim Miller vs. Mark Bocek
Odds: (-400 Miller / +300 Bocek)
The opening bout of the evening pits two elite grapplers against one another in the Lightweight division, as submission expert Jim Miller takes on tough Canadian rear naked choke machine Mark Bocek. Both guys are currently just below the top tier in the 155 pound division, and with BJ likely moving up to 170, a win here could insert one of these guys into the title picture sooner than you would think.
Mark Bocek, a Canadian who trains in Florida with American Top Team, is a skilled wrestler who is very good at using top position to secure submissions and finish his opponents. One of his specialties is doing damage from top position, forcing his opponent to turn, and securing the rear naked choke. Five of Bocek’s eight professional wins have come by way of rear naked choke, with a sixth coming by armbar. Against Miller, Bocek will probably be giving up the edge in both submission prowess and standup ability, but he has a definite edge in size and wrestling, so he is going to be a tough opponent.
Miller, one half of the famed “Flying Miller Brothers”, is a prolific grappler who can submit guys from top position, side control, or off his back. There is little question that Miller’s ground game is more advanced than Bocek’s, and he is also the superior striker, although he does not have a lot of power. The important thing is that Miller will be giving up the edge in wrestling ability, and the only two losses of his career came at the hands of guys who were able to use wrestling to shut his gameplan down.
This is an interesting stylistic matchup. Miller will win the standup exchanges and has the more effective submission game, but Bocek’s superior strength and wrestling mean he will probably be the one who controls if, when, and how this fight goes to the mat. Even so, I think Miller is just too versatile, and his bottom game is superior to anyone Bocek has really fought, so I expect Miller to control most of this fight and keep Bocek in bay when he does earn top position. Miller by unanimous decision.
Prediction: Jim Miller via unanimous decision.
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