UFC 111: Ben Saunders vs. Jake Ellenberger Prediction

Ben Saunders vs.  Jake Ellenberger

Odds: (-150 Saunders / +120 Ellenberger)

The third bout of the evening is a Welterweight matchup between Ultimate Fighter alum Ben “Killa B” Saunders and IFL veteran Jake Ellenberger.  Ellenberger is 1-1 in his UFC career and has an impressive resume in a variety of other promotions, while Saunders has continued to improve, especially as a striker, since his Ultimate Fighter appearances.

Jake Ellenberger, who has fought in a huge variety of promotions, has amassed a very good record with a mix of dangerous striking, knockout power, solid wrestling, and a decent jiu-jitsu game.  His best attribute is definitely his striking, which is crisp and powerful, especially his punches.  He is not the best grappler out there, but he has very good submission defense and has never once been finished with strikes.  He will enter this fight with a huge advantage in experience over Saunders, which makes him a tough nut to crack, especially considering how hard he is to finish.

Saunders, a self-professed Jeet Kune Do fighter, is very dangerous both standing and on the ground.  He is abnormally tall for the Welterweight division, which not only gives him a huge reach advantage in the striking game, but adds another dimension to his unorthodox but highly effective submission attack.  Saunders uses his length extremely well, and his Muay Thai has become very dangerous, especially since his long reach makes it easier for him to tie people up in the clinch.  His wrestling and takedown game are not the best, but he can do some ground and pound damage and can submit guys both from top position and off his back.

Ellenberger is a tough fighter, but I think Saunders is a bad style matchup for any striker.  Ellenberger has a lot of power, but Saunders’ reach advantage is really difficult to deal with, and now that he has added a very dynamic Muay Thai attack to his arsenal he is a huge threat to finish the fight standing, and in the grappling game he is much more dangerous than Ellenberger.  I expect Saunders to frustrate Ellenberger the entire fight and earn the decision victory.

Prediction:  Ben “Killa B” Saunders via unanimous decision. 

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