265 lbs: Junior dos Santos vs. Gabriel Gonzaga
Odds: (-290 Dos Santos / +230 Gonzaga )
In the co-main event of the evening, hot prospect Junior “Cigano” Dos Santos will look to prove that he belongs in the title picture with Mir and Velasquez against a tough gatekeeper in Gabriel Gonzaga. Gonzaga has excellent grappling and has proven that he can stand and slug with the big boys, but Dos Santos has looked absolutely monstrous in the standup so far, so this is an interesting matchup.
Junior dos Santos, a product of Team Noguiera, arrived on the UFC scene with a bang, easily blasting out highly regarded contender Fabricio Werdum. He has been on a roll since then, dispatching Stefan Struve, Mirko Cro Cop, and Gilbert Yvel in his next three appearances. On the feet, dos Santos is a monster, with awesome boxing and muay thai and a load of power. The question is how well his ground game will hold up. Early in his career, he looked extremely shaky on the mat, and since then his striking has been good enough that his jiu-jitsu has not been sorely tested, something Gonzaga is more than capable of doing.
Gonzaga is a very accomplished grappler, but you would hardly know it from watching his fights. Despite his grappling prowess, he prefers to rely on his huge, heavy punching to beat his opponents down. He has proven that he can dole out serious punishment in the standup, but it has also backfired on him in the form of some spectacular knockout losses. There is no question that Gonzaga is better than dos Santos on the ground, the question is whether or not he will try to take the fight down or be content to stand and slug with his opponent as he has for most of his UFC career.
Considering dos Santos’ relative inexperience fighting top-level grapplers, there is a strong reason to believe that Gonzaga could take him down and control the fight, if not submit him. Gonzaga’s previous UFC performances, though, make it seem much more likely that he will give dos Santos what he wants, and engage in a striking power. In the striking, Gonzaga is powerful but dos Santos is vastly superior technically and has just as much power. If Gonzaga chooses to box with dos Santos, which I think he will, this is going to be a replay of his fights with Werdum and Carwin, and he is going to get put to sleep in brutal fashion.
Prediction: Junior Dos Santos via Second Round T/KO.
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