170 lbs: Mike Swick vs. Paulo Thiago
The third bout of the evening is a competitive welterweight matchup between Ultimate Fighter Season 1 alum Mike “Quick” Swick and Brazilian bruiser Paulo Thiago. Both men are in the middle of the crowded Welterweight mix, so a win here is crucial to distance them from the pack.
Paulo Thiago burst onto the UFC scene with a spectacular knockout of top contender Josh Koscheck. He followed it up going 1-1 in his next two Octagon appearances, outpointing tough wrestler Jacob Volkmann and coming up just short against another top contender in Jon Fitch. Thiago has an impressive skill set, with very good jiu-jitsu, good wrestling, and obviously one-punch knockout power, although his standup technique is not spectacular. That well-roundedness is going to be crucial against Swick, who also has a very versatile offense.
Mike Swick first made a name for himself on the original season of The Ultimate Fighter, and since that time he has continued to grow as a fighter and turned in a slew of very impressive performances. Originally a mainstay at 185, Swick moved down after coming up short against Yushin Okami, and fought his way to the top of the Welterweight division before coming up short against Dan Hardy in his last fight. Swick’s punching is the best thing about his game, but he also has very solid wrestling to complement his technical kickboxing and knockout power. Another important factor to consider is that both Josh Koscheck and Jon Fitch, who have fought Thiago, are Swick’s teammates, which almost has to provide some benefit in training for him.
Ultimately, Swick is too well-rounded for Thiago to handle. Thiago does have one-punch knockout power, but Swick knows that and is too smart to over-commit. Technically, Swick is much better on the feet, and while Thiago does have good jiu-jitsu Swick’s superior wrestling will keep Thiago from dictating the pace of the bout. I expect Swick to control this one en route to a unanimous decision.
Fight Prediction: Mike Swick via unanimous decision.
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