265 lbs: Paul Buentello vs. Stefan Struve
UFC 107 Odds: (+100 Buentello /-130 Struve )
Paul “The Headhunter” Buentello makes his Octagon return in the opening bout of the evening, where he will face Dutch grappling phenom Stefan “Skyscraper” Struve. This fight is a return to UFC’s style vs. style roots, pitting pure striker Buentello against pure grappler Struve. In the days of cross-training athletes, it is rare that you get to see two guys go at it who are so dominant in their one chosen discipline, which makes this a compelling matchup.
Paul Buentello, who fights out of the highly-touted American Kickboxing Academy, is a powerful striker with a surplus of knockout power who has amassed an excellent 9-2 record since 2004, with the only two losses coming to former UFC Heavyweight Champion Andrei Arlovski and current Strikeforce Heavyweight Champion Alistair Overeem. He will enter the fight with Struve holding a massive advantage in the striking department, but in the ground game he is just as overmatched as Struve is standing. What is troubling is that, of Buentello’s ten career losses, a whopping seven have come by way of submission, so if he wants to extend his winning streak for three he needs to train his submission defense extensively.
Struve, who was destroyed by Junior dos Santos in his inaugural UFC appearance, has rebounded nicely with two consecutive impressive submission wins. A ridiculously effective grappler, 14 of Struve’s 18 career wins have come by submission, making him one of the most effective submission artists in the history of the Heayweight division. His standup is not very effective, though, and the shellacking he took at the hands of dos Santos raised some questions about his chin, which could prove problematic against a puncher as deadly as Buentello.
I don’t think this is a very good fight for Buentello. His one biggest weakness is his submission defense, and Struve is far and away the best grappler he has ever faced. Granted, Struve’s weakness is his standup, but his 6’11” frame gives him a huge reach advantage that will not only help keep Buentello at bay, it will make it far easier for him to tie Buentello up and get this fight to the ground. Once it hits the mat, it’s good night sweet prince for Buentello, who won’t last one minute before being submitted.
Fight Prediction: Struve wins via first round submission.
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