155 lbs: Kenny “Ken Flo” Florian vs. Clay “The Carpenter” Guida
Odds: (- 200 Florian / +160 Guida)
In the first of two huge Lightweight matchups, former title challenger Kenny “Ken Flo” Florian will return to the Octagon after his disappointing submission loss against BJ Penn against frenetic wrestler Clay “The Carpenter” Guida.
Florian has established himself as one of the top 155 pounders in UFC, while Guida is a dangerous contender, so this one has serious implications for the shape of the top of the division.
Guida, a dominant wrestler known for his wacky appearance and his relentless aggression inside the Octagon, His fights don’t seem to get finished often, but they are always close and active. While his UFC record is not stellar, he has fought only top competition, and has only been finished once. The biggest impediment to his success is his lack of a good standup game. He relies on takedowns, getting on top of opponents, and going wild. All of his losses have been against guys he could not take down, and his gameplan against Florian will be exactly like his gameplan against everyone he fights.
Florian, whose only 2 losses since coming up short against Diego Sanchez in the Ultimate Fighter Season 1 are against the former and current Lightweight champions, is one of the most complete fighters in the world at any weight. A top-level black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, over the years Florian’s Muay Thai has evolved to the point that he is now one of the best strikers at 155 pounds. He doesn’t have very good wrestling, but he can control a fight with his Muay Thai, is great in the clinch, and when a fight goes to the ground he is a threat to finish from any position.
As talented as Guida is, I think Florian is too much for him by far. Florian’s standup is vastly superior, he has a very good submission game, and he is going to be difficult for Guida to take down. I expect this fight to be fairly one-sided. Florian will stuff Guida’s takedown attempts and batter him on the feet en route to a one-sided decision.
Fight Prediction: Kenny Florian via unanaimous decision.
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