265 lbs: Frank Mir vs. Cheick Kongo
Odds: (-210 Mir /+170 Kongo )
In a Heavyweight showcase, former UFC Heavyweight Champion Frank Mir will face off with French kickboxer Cheick Kongo. With both men coming off crushing losses to dominant wrestlers, a win here is a must in order to maintain status in the upper crust of UFC’s Heavyweight division.
Frank Mir, a former Heavyweight champ who saw his career derailed after a near-fatal motorcycle accident, is one of the most dangerous submission artists in the Heavyweight division. He struggled a bit shortly after his return from the injury, but looked incredible in back to back wins over Brock Lesnar and the legendary Antonio Rodrigo Noguiera. Always a proficient grappler, Mir showed vastly improved boxing against Noguiera, which is a big deal going into a fight with a striker like Kongo.
Kongo, a powerful kickboxer who has also displayed some intense ground and pound, has got dangerous punching and kicking, with a lot of power, speed, and accuracy. As much as Mir’s striking has improved, if this devolves into a kickboxing match Kongo will pick him apart easily and almost assuredly finish him. On the ground, Kongo’s submission defense has not been tested, so he will want to avoid a grappling match at all costs because Mir is extremely dangerous. In his last fight, Kongo’s takedown defense was blown to pieces by Cain Velasquez, but it remains to be seen how much of that is because Kongo’s defense is subpar and how much of it is because Velasquez is a monster.
This fight, obviously, is going to come down to Mir’s wrestling and Kongo’s takedown defense. If Mir can take Kongo down, he can and will submit him. If he can’t, he is going to get torn apart by Kongo. As much as Mir has accomplished, I give the edge to Kongo. Since his motorcycle accident, Mir has fought back bravely but has shown a diminished ability to change levels rapidly because of the damage to his knees. That is going to make it much harder for him to take Kongo down. I think Kongo will easily outbox Mir and prevent him from securing the takedown, before eventually T/KOing him.
Fight Prediction: Kongo via second round T/KO.
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