UFC Lightweight Champion BJ Penn vs. Diego Sanchez
UFC 107 Odds: ( -275 Penn / +215 Sanchez )
The main event of the evening pits Lightweight champion BJ Penn against challenger Diego “Nightmare” Sanchez. Sanchez has looked good since dropping down to Lightweight, but Penn hasn’t lost at 155 pounds since 2002, so Diego is going to need a career performance to capture his first UFC title.
Sanchez, who won The Ultimate Fighter Season 1 with a dominant performance over Kenny Florian, has looked very good in UFC ever since. Originally competing at Welterweight, Sanchez hit a wall and chose to drop to 155 after consecutive losses to Josh Koscheck and Jon Fitch. In his Lightweight debut, Sanchez overwhelmed top contender Joe “Daddy” Stevenson, and scored a second win when he captured a narrow decision against tough wrestler Clay Guida. Sanchez is a very aggressive fighter who likes to keep constant pressure on his opponents and has good wrestling, decent submissions, good ground and pound, and hard if awkward punches.
B.J. Penn, the reigning Lightweight champion, is easily one of the most dynamic fighters in the world, at any weight. His boxing is heavy-handed and technically amazing, with crisp punching and great footwork. On the ground, he has the best Jiu-Jitsu in the UFC at 155 pounds, easily. The only part of his game that isn’t that great is his takedowns. He is not very good at getting a fight to the ground, but he is excellent at keeping opponents from taking him down, as he proved against Sean Sherk, Joe Stevenson, and Kenny Florian. No matter where a fight goes, or what form it takes, BJ Penn is the most dangerous fighter in the Lightweight division.
Put simply, I don’t think Sanchez has anything for Penn in this one. Sanchez’s boxing is awkward and he keeps his chin up, which is not a good idea against Penn. Diego is a good wrestler, but he is not one of the most dominant wrestlers out there and the cut to 155 has had an impact on his strength and explosiveness. Even if he does get Penn down, Penn is very good at using the rubber guard to control opponents and is a threat to submit or sweep at all times. I don’t think Sanchez is going to be able to get Penn down, though, and he will get his face abused by Penn’s boxing, eventually getting dropped and finished with a choke.
Fight Prediction: BJ Penn via third round rear naked choke.
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