265 lbs: Roy Nelson vs. Brendan Schaub
Odds: (-270 Nelson / +210 Schaub )
In the final matchup of The Ultimate Fighter’s Tenth Season, Roy “Big Country” Nelson and Greg Jackson student Brendan Schaub will square off for the famed six-figure contract and a guaranteed spot in the sport’s biggest promotion. The two men are an interesting contrast. Schaub is a young, hungry, athletic fighter with a solid skill set but not a lot of experience. Nelson, on the other hand, is not a chiseled, masterfully-conditioned athlete, but has a huge edge in terms of technique and experience. Will Nelson’s size, technique, and experience be too much for the young gun, or will Schaub teach Nelson a few new tricks?
Brendan Schaub’s road to the finals was not easy, but he excelled at every stage. First, he caught athletic contender Demico Rogers in a textbook anaconda choke for an impressive win. Then, he withstood the dominant wrestling of Jon Madsen, albeit with the help of a couple dozen fence grabs, before putting him down with strikes. Then, he held off another physical monster in Marcus Jones, withstanding his ground attack before getting the best of “Big Baby” with some powerful strikes. He has proven that he can hang with all different sorts of fighters, but Nelson is more complete than anyone else he faced on the show by far, so if he wants to take that final step and become The Ultimate Fighter, he is going to have to turn in a career performance.
Nelson, an IFL veteran who had more experience than most of the cast of this season combined, is not what you picture an elite athlete looking like. Despite his clear rotundity, however, Nelson brings a legitimate, well-rounded, well-developed skill set to the Octagon, as well as that blend of patience and wisdom that only long familiarity with the sport can bring. A good wrestler with solid striking and black belt level jiu jitsu, Nelson’s skills and sheer size make him a handful for anyone in the world. While he has not wowed audiences, or UFC President Dana White, with his performances on the show to date, Nelson is the kind of wily veteran who will hold back and only expend the amount of energy necessary to get the job done.
Schaub, with his well-rounded skill set and freakish athleticism, not to mention his top-level training camp, has the potential to go further in the sport than Nelson ever could. Unfortunately, though, he has to fight Nelson now, not in some indeterminate future, and right now he is just not ready for the calm, effective attack that Nelson will bring. Nelson may not have the same determined takedowns as Madsen did, but he has vastly superior standup which allows him to effectively set up his takedowns much better. Schaub probably has enough tools to keep this fight competitive, but Nelson is just too experienced and too well-rounded, and will earn a unanimous decision win.
Fight Prediction: “Big Country” Roy Nelson via unanimous decision.
