205 lbs: Matt “The Hammer” Hamill vs. Jon “Bones” Jones
Odds: (+170 Hamill / -110 Jones)
In a competitive Light Heavyweight matchup, two powerful wrestlers will collide in former Ultimate Fighter fan favorite Matt “The Hammer” Hamill and undefeated prospect Jon “Bones” Jones. Hamill, while not a title contender, is tough as nails and has a very dangerous skill set, so he is a perfect “gatekeeper” to establish where the streaking Jones rests in UFC’s 205 pound hierarchy.
Hamill, a dominant wrestler with a developing standup game, is a story in heart and determination. Over the last few seasons, The Ultimate Fighter has been full of guys who seemingly didn’t want to be there and used every excuse to not fight. By contrast, the legitimate tears Hamill shed when doctors would not allow him to continue are even more stirring. Hamill is not all heart, though. He brings extremely dominant wrestling and an extremely active top game to the table, as well, not to mention a standup game that, while still developing, is improving rapidly. Still, though, I doubt he will want to stand with Jones, who packs a considerable punch, so he will probably rely on his wrestling as always and try to stay on top and wear Jones down with vicious ground and pound.
Jones is, to put it mildly, not an ideal opponent for Hamill. For one thing, Jones comes from a wrestling background just as strong, if not stronger, than Hamill’s. For another, Jones has a size and reach advantage. For a third, Jones’ standup is a good bit more dangerous than Hamill’s is. On paper, Jones will enter this fight with a sizable stylistic advantage. He is not very experienced though, so it is very important that he keeps his wits about him and doesn’t allow Hamill’s relentless pressure to put him off his game plan.
In the end, I think Jones’ physical and stylistic advantages are just too much for Hamill to overcome. Hamill’s best weapon is his wrestling, but Jones has just as extensive an amateur background, and has the additional benefit of superior striking which will make it easier for him to set up his own takedowns. Hamill certainly won’t go out without a fight, but I think Jones will win the standup exchanges and nullify Hamill’s wrestling on his way to a one-sided unanimous decision.
Fight Prediction: Jon Jones via unanimous decision.
