UFC 106, from a gambling perspective, is one of the least attractive cards in recent memory. A number of mismatches, a number of fights that are extremely competitive, and some near-wash odds combine to make this a difficult show to squeeze profit from.
Never fear, though, because there is a difference between difficult and impossible. There are two matchups on this card that show potential for profit with underdog bets. First, Bellator veteran Jacob Volkmann, who is an underdog (+160) to Paulo Thiago, has a dominant wrestling and top control game, which should allow him to earn the upset since Thiago showed vulnerability to top-level wrestlers against Jon Fitch in his last fight. Secondly, UFC veteran Phil Baroni is an underdog (+175) against Ultimate Fighter winner Amir Sadollah. Sadollah has a dangerous submission game, but Baroni has excellent takedown defense early in the fight and a surplus of knockout power. Sadollah is going to have a hard time taking Baroni down early on, and in his last fight he was stopped with strikes very early by Johnny Hendricks, who has nowhere near the amount of power Baroni has. I think Baroni, despite his awful record, should be able to keep this fight standing and put Sadollah down early in the first. Kendall Grove is also an underdog with a good chance of winning, but I think the other two stylistic matchups make those bets a little bit safer.
Of course, you can also make a little bit of profit parlaying favorites. In my mind, the two best “sure thing” favorites are Brock Larson and George Sotiropolous, so a parlay of those two fighters could pay dividends. If you want to improve the profit margin, maybe add Volkmann to that to sweeten up the odds.
Current (Main Card) UFC 106 Odds at Sportsbook.com
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Ortiz (even)
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Griffin (-130)
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Koscheck (-115)
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Johnson (-115)
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Sadollah (-215)
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Baroni (+175)
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Nogueira (-150)
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Cane (+120)
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Volkmann (+160)
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Thiago (-200)
UFC 106 Predictions and Information Page.
