170 lbs: Paulo Thiago vs. Jacob Volkmann
With Karo Parisyan’s withdrawal from UFC 106 for unknown reasons, the Welterweight bout between Paulo Thiago and undefeated Bellator veteran Jacob Volkmann has been bumped up to the main card. Thiago was thrown right into the deep end of the Welterweight division, and now Volkmann is getting a similar treatment, debuting against Thiago.
Thiago, a well-rounded Brazilian with an excellent submission attack and some serious knockout power, came bursting onto the UFC with a huge knockout win over top contender Josh Koscheck. After such an impressive performance in a tough debut, Thiago was thrown even deeper into the title contender’s mix against dominant wrestler Jon Fitch. Fitch’s dominant wrestling proved too much for Thiago, who lost a unanimous decision after being controlled for pretty much the entire fight. Still, being 1-1 in UFC against two guys who have challenged for the title is no small feat. Thiago has all the tools to remain successful near the top of the division, too, with a proven track record of submission wins and the knockout power he showed against Koscheck. If he wants to get back into the win column, though, he is going to have to work on his takedown defense, sweeps, and escapes. Fitch controlled him with wrestling, and Volkmann brings a top-level wrestling game into the Octagon, so hopefully Thiago has been drilling his wrestling extensively.
Jacob “Christmas” Volkmann, one of the most inexplicably-nicknamed fighters in the world, has a style that is as hard to figure out as his nickname. Volkmann, who trains out of Minnesota Martial Arts with stars such as Nick Thompson, Brock Larson, and Brock Lesnar, has the dominant wrestling game that has become associated with that camp. He also, unlike some of his MMAA contemporaries, has a world-class Brazilian Jiu Jitsu game, and has won two thirds of his fights with submissions. The biggest concern for Volkmann here is that Thiago represents a pretty big step up in competition for him. Volkmann has the tools to earn the win with his dominant wrestling, he just has to remain calm and not let his tough opponent and first appearance on the big show get to him.
Stylistically, I think the edge here goes to Volkmann. Both guys have excellent submission games, so I doubt either man will get finished by submission. The edge in standup has to go to Thiago, who has proven that he can finish a quality fighter on the feet. The most important factor, though, is going to be Volkmann’s dominant wrestling. An accomplished NCAA wrestler who has shown that he can effectively use his wrestling in MMA, Volkmann should have no problem taking Thiago down and controlling him. He’ll have to be cautious on the top because Thiago has a quality ground game, so this one may not be very exciting, but Volkmann should be able to control the pace, shut down Thiago’s offense, and earn the unanimous decision.
Fight Prediction: Volkmann via unanimous decision
