Main event:
205 lbs: Tito Ortiz vs. Forrest Griffin
Odds: (even Ortiz / -130 Griffin)
The main event is a rematch between two former UFC Light Heavyweight champions, “The Huntington Beach Bad Boy” Tito Ortiz and fan favorite Forrest Griffin. This fight promises to be explosive for a number of reasons. In their first fight, Ortiz was awarded an extremely controversial decision after destroying Griffin in the first round but seemingly losing the subsequent two. Adding fuel to the fire, Ortiz accused Griffin of applying a greasing agent in his corner during the fight, a charge Griffin vehemently denies. Furthermore, Ortiz is 0-2-1 in his last three fights, and has fought only twice since 2007, during which time he was frequently publicly maligned by UFC President Dana White, so he is hungry to prove that he is still one of the top Light Heavyweights in the world. Forrest, in the meantime, is coming off a TKO loss to Rashad Evans and one of the most embarrassing destructions in UFC history at the hands of Middleweight champion Anderson Silva, so a win here is an absolute must if he wants to stay relevant at the top of the Light Heavyweight division.
Forrest Griffin is something of an enigma. A perennial underdog, he seemed to find ways to snatch victory from his hugely favored opponents until recently. One of Griffin’s biggest advantages is his size. He will enter the fight with a sizable advantage over Ortiz in height, reach, and weight. The biggest hole in his game is that he is a jack of all trades, but king of none. He is a proficient boxer, but has absolutely no knockout power. He can wrestle, but not well enough to out-wrestle someone like Tito. His jiu jitsu, though, is very underrated, as he proved when he submitted skilled grappler Shogun Rua. For him to avenge his controversial loss, the key is going to be his takedown defense. If he can keep Tito at bay using his reach and his jab while stopping takedowns like he did in rounds 2 and 3 of their first fight, he proved that he can easily outbox Tito and control the fight standing.
Ortiz, the longest-reigning Light Heavyweight champion in UFC’s history, did not achieve that status because his takedowns are easy to stop. Arguably one of the most dominant wrestlers in the sport’s history, Ortiz’s only problem is that he didn’t evolve with the sport and develop a top-level standup game. Even so, every opponent he has ever fought has known that a takedown was coming, and only three, Lyoto Machida, Randy Couture, and Chuck Liddell, have managed to stop it with any efficacy. Long hampered by back injuries, Ortiz insists that he is in the best physical condition of his career after numerous surgeries, but his lack of recent activity is somewhat troubling. Still, he has never been known as someone with bad cardio, and he should certainly have enough conditioning for a three round fight.
If Tito is to be believed, and his back is in top condition, he will easily dominate Forrest with takedowns. Over the recent years, his takedowns have looked slower by far than in his peak years, but this layoff may have been exactly what he needed to get his back into shape. The biggest thing working against Forrest is his pillow hands. He can outbox Ortiz easily, but it is extremely unlikely that he will actually knock him out. That gives Tito a little more leeway on the feet, since he can reasonably expect to survive eating a punch or two in exchange for securing a takedown. Forrest is a proficient grappler, but Tito is notoriously difficult to submit, and has a strong submission wrestling background. I expect Forrest to win stretches of this fight by utilizing his size advantage and superior striking, but I just don’t think he will be able to prevent Tito from taking him down enough times, and doing enough damage from top position, to earn an uncontroversial unanimous decision.
Fight Prediction: Ortiz via unanimous decision
