170 lbs: Anthony Johnson vs. Josh Koscheck
Odds: ( Koscheck / Johnson)
The semi Main Event is a huge welterweight showndown between perennial contender Josh Koscheck and up and coming beast Anthony “Rumble” Johnson. Koscheck has had some mixed results lately, and will be looking for a bit of redemption, while a win for Johnson would have to propel him into the title picture, so both guys have a lot to fight for.
Anthony Johnson is, to put it mildly, a monster. In his last fight he missed his weight by an embarrassing margin, but also easily demolished a skilled fighter in Yoshiyuki Yoshida. He is an extremely physically imposing fighter, and he knows how to utilize his size and strength to put a huge amount of power in his punches, which are devastating. Although he comes from a wrestling background, his ground game has not been on display much due to the overpowering nature of his striking game. Still, with a strong amateur wrestling background coupled with his size and strength, it is safe to assume that Johnson can hold his own in the wrestling game, at the very least. Even so, his gameplan against Koscheck will be predictable. He will come forward at Koscheck, trying to force a standup fight, where Johnson is capable of finishing anyone at Welterweight if he can land and Koscheck has shown some vulnerability.
Koscheck, once derided for being one-dimensional and boring, is one of the most improved fighters in the world over the last few years. Once a typical “lay and pray” wrestler, Koscheck’s kickboxing has improved by leaps and bounds, to the point that he is now a dangerous striker who can end a fight with his hands. The downside of that improvement, though, is that Koscheck has shown a tendency to highlight his newfound striking prowess at the expense of his dominant wrestling, which is still his best weapon by far. If he makes that mistake against Johnson, who is bigger, more explosive, and has more punching power, he will likely pay for it in the form of a knockout. Koscheck shouldn’t be afraid to strike, but he should use his striking to set up his double leg, which is one of the best in the sport. Johnson has a strong amateur wrestling background, but Koscheck has a long history of using wrestling effectively inside the Octagon, so if he doesn’t telegraph his shots badly there is no reason he shouldn’t be able to take the larger Johnson down.
To me, this fight is very nearly a split, but if I have to give the edge to one guy I’m going to go with Koscheck. Johnson is a monster, but Koscheck is more well-rounded. If Johnson can prevent the takedown, there is a good chance he will stop Koscheck on strikes, but Koscheck has proven that his striking is also formidable, and his wrestling is much more proven in actual MMA competition. Johnson’s size and wrestling make it unlikely that Koscheck will be able to hold him on the mat for long periods of time, but as long as he can keep Johnson at a distance on the feet and set up his takedowns well, he should be able to earn enough points to secure the decision. Either way, this is not a very attractive fight, either way, from a wagering perspective.
Fight Prediction: Josh Koscheck via split decision.
