205 lbs: Luiz Cane vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
Odds ( Cane / Nogueira)
The third bout of the night features another UFC debut, as PRIDE veteran Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, henceforth referred to as Little Nog, steps into the Octagon for the first time to face another tough Brazilian in Luis Arthur “Banha” Cane. Little Nog was one of the most highly-regarded Light Heavyweights in the world outside of UFC, but Cane has been on a tear in UFC, so if Little Nog wants to live up to his considerable reputation and put himself in position for a future shot at the title or a rematch with Shogun, he is going to have his hands full.
Luis Arthur Cane is a powerful and aggressive striker who fights out of the highly-regarded American Top Team. His only loss so far came courtesy of a DQ when he hit James Irvin with an illegal knee on the ground, so he has never actually been bested in a fight. Since making his UFC debut, his level of competition has steadily increased, and he has overcome every challenge so far. Nogueira is the most considerable step up yet, though, as he is easily the most well-rounded fighter Cane has been matched up with. The key for Cane is to keep the pressure on Little Nog and concentrate on working his game plan instead of getting drawn into the kind of fight Nogueira wants.
Little Nog, the identical twin brother of former PRIDE and UFC Heavyweight champion Antonio Rodrigo Noguiera, is a force to be reckoned with in his own right. As accomplished a grappler as his brother, Little Nog also brings top level boxing to the Octagon, having medaled in the Pan Am games and numerous other international boxing competitions. The best word to describe Little Nog’s style is technical, both standing and on the ground. His boxing is crisp, accurate, and textbook, and he is an extremely skilled Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt. For him to be successful, he just has to be patient and exploit his advantage in experience and technical ability. Little Nog is not the type to overwhelm an opponent, so he is going to want to use his technical boxing to keep Cane at a distance, and resort to takedowns when Cane manages to close the gap.
Cane is a serious threat in the Light Heavyweight division, and this early into his career his prospects are only going to improve. At this point, though, I think Nogueira is just a little too well-rounded for him. On the ground, Little Nog has a massive advantage. Cane certainly has the kind of explosive power that can put Nogueira to sleep if he can land, but Noguiera’s technical boxing, especially his jab, coupled with the ever-present takedown threat, will prevent Cane from being as aggressive as he needs to be to win this. I expect Noguiera to hold Cane at bay for a while with a lot of jabs and some straights, but eventually he will want to take this down, where he should be able to submit Cane.
Fight Prediction: Noguiera by submission, round 3.
