185 lbs: Jason “Mayhem” Miller vs. Jake Shields
Odds: (-325 Shields / +250 Miller)
The co-main event of the evening is for the Strikeforce Middleweight Championship, recently vacated by former champion Cung Le. Competing for the belt will be Jason “Mayhem” Miller and Cesar Gracie product Jake Shields, two of the best grapplers in the weight division. Although Shields is naturally a Welterweight, the lack of competition for him on the Strikeforce roster has moved him up a weight class. Fortunately, Miller is not a big Middleweight, so there will hardly be any size difference between the two.
Jake Shields, one of the most dangerous grapplers in the sport at any weight, has the ability to win on the ground any way it takes. He can control his opponents with dominant positional control, he can soften them up with ground and pound and a smothering top game, or he can submit them from any imaginable position. In his last fight, he calmly withstood some early aggression from Robbie Lawler before choking him out with a guillotine that looked too easy. Shields’ stand up leaves a lot to be desired, but his ground game is so dominant that it rarely poses a problem for him. Against Miller, he will probably look to utilize his wrestling, as he will be at a disadvantage in the standup and Miller is also an extremely talented grappler.
Jason “Mayhem” Miller is one of the most flamboyant personalities in the sport. His interviews, ring entrances, and general demeanor are absurd and over the top. Far from being all show, though, Miller has what it takes to back it up in the ring. His solid standup and extremely good ground game make him dangerous to any opponent he faces. If he can manage to keep this fight standing, he should be able to outbox Shields easily and either TKO him or earn the decision. Of course, the same thing was true in his fight with Jacare, and instead of working his own gameplan he opted to try and submit one of the best BJJ black belts in the world. Predictably, he failed, and ended up losing the decision. In his interviews since that fight, though, Miller has admitted that his gameplan was extremely ill-considered.
The question is, then, whether or not Miller has the ability to keep Shields from taking him down and controlling him. While I don’t think that there is anyone in the world at 170 or 185 who can completely keep Shields from working on the ground, Miller’s jiu jitsu is at least close to as good as Shields’, and he should be able to neutralize Shields’ advantage to get standups, not to mention sweeps and escapes of his own.
Fight Prediction: I see Miller coming out ahead in this one in the end by unanimous decision by controlling the standup and neutralizing Shields’ ground attack.
