265 lbs: Cain Velasquez vs. Ben Rothwell
Co-Main Event Odds: (-290 Velasquez / +230 Rothwell)
In a Heavyweight matchup that will likely have immediate title shot implications, undefeated prospect Cain Velasquez will face by far his toughest challenge to date in former IFL Champion Ben Rothwell, who is making his UFC debut. With Lesnar vs. Carwin already scheduled, whoever wins this fight is in prime position to challenge the winner for the UFC Heavyweight Title.
Cain Velasquez, an undefeated prospect with a strong amateur wrestling background, also possesses a surplus of punching power, as he proved by winning his first 5 professional fights by TKO. In his last fight, he made a big step up in competition and succeeded yet again, earning the unanimous decision nod over strong contender Cheick Kongo by controlling him with his solid wrestling. The obvious disadvantage Velasquez brings into the fight is his lack of experience. Rothwell is a step up in competition from even Kongo, and a mere six professional fights may not be enough to prepare for such an experienced veteran.
Rothwell, the former IFL champion, is one of the more well-rounded Heavyweights in the world. While no part of his game is spectacular, he has solid standup, wrestling, and submissions. More importantly, he has an experience advantage of 30 fights, many against quality competition. While Velasquez undoubtedly has more punching power, Rothwell is the superior striker technically. Similarly, Velasquez has better wrestling, but Rothwell has the more technical and complete ground game. Considering that Velasquez’s submission defense has never been tested, that technical edge on the ground may be the deciding factor.
This is a difficult fight to predict, because Velasquez is physically superior and Rothwell is technically superior. Although Rothwell is actually the bigger of the two, he cannot match Velasquez’s power and explosiveness. On the other hand, Velasquez lacks the experience and training to match Rothwell’s. It is worth noting, though, that Velasquez is a huge favorite in this fight, which to me makes Rothwell easily the most attractive underdog pick on the card. Velasquez no doubt has a future in this division, but Rothwell will put a halt to his run and Velasquez will come back an even better fighter. I think Velasquez is just too green to truck through a fighter of Rothwell’s caliber, and with the odds as they are now, Rothwell looks like a potential goldmine.
Fight Prediction: Rothwell by unanimous decision.
