Event Fighters: 265 lbs. Randy Couture (16-9) vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (31-5-1)
Main Event Odds: Couture -185 / Nogueira +155 at Sportsbook.com
Prediction: I see Couture earning the unanimous decision by controlling the pace throughout.
The main event of the evening is a matchup between two men who will be remembered among the greatest of all time. Former UFC Heavyweight and Light Heavyweight Champion Randy “The Natural” Couture and former UFC Interim Heavyweight and Pride Heavyweight Champion Antonio Rodrigo Noguiera will meet, finally, after years of speculation. Both men are coming off big losses, and considering their age and experience, a loss for either could signal the end of a legendary career.
Couture is what they had in mind when they decided to create the UFC Hall of Fame. A late arrival to Mixed Martial Arts, Couture has continually defied nature and expectations, turning in legendary performances every time people thought he was done. A powerful wrestler with good top control and ground and pound, Couture’s most deadly weapon is his dirty boxing from the clinch, where he is a master of bullying opponents around and doing damage. His submission defense is also very good, despite a few losses early in his career, which is a huge help against a grappler of Noguiera’s caliber. His actual boxing is powerful but sloppy, but he usually only uses it to close the distance and get in close. Despite a loss to Brock Lesnar in his last fight, Couture acquitted himself well and showed no signs that age has finally caught up with him.
Noguiera, on the other hand, looked seriously depleted in his last fight, a shellacking at the hands of Frank Mir. While Noguiera’s camp attributed his sluggish performance to sickness, it is at least worth considering that the huge number of beatings he has taken over the course of his career have finally begun to take their toll. It would be unwise, though, not to give the benefit of the doubt to a guy who has been around as long Nogueira has. A skilled technical boxer and top-level grappler, Noguiera’s best trait has always been his granite chin, which looked invulnerable until the Mir fight. Considering Couture’s ability to deal damage from inside the guard and good submission defense, Noguiera’s best strategy will probably be to use his jab and keep a long range to exploit Couture’s inferior technical boxing, and maybe even slip in a takedown attempt or two to keep Couture off guard.
Noguiera’s condition aside, I think this is a bad stylistic matchup for him. Noguiera’s grappling and boxing are probably better, but Couture’s wrestling is much better, which means this won’t go to the ground unless he decides it should. On the feet, I think Couture’s more physical style will overwhelm the more patient Noguiera, allowing him to get in close and utilize his dirty boxing.
I see Couture earning the unanimous decision by controlling the pace throughout.
Predicted by Pat V.
