UFC 102: Nate Marquardt vs. Demian Maia Prediction

185 lbs. Nate Marquardt (28-8-2) vs. Demian Maia (10-0)

The second match of the evening, and far and away the most compelling, is a Middleweight clash between long-time veteran Nate “The Great” Marquardt and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu phenom and undefeated contender Demian Maia.  With Dan Henderson looking like a lock for the next Middleweight title shot, the winner of this fight will definitely get the next fight with the winner of Silva/Henderson.  What is compelling about this fight, stylistically, is that it is a matchup between one guy who is very good at every aspect of fighting and a guy who excels to the utmost degree at one aspect.

Demian Maia’s jiu-jitsu is hard to even quantify because there is really no one in the sport you can compare it to.  To say that he is a black belt, or even a world champion, doesn’t really communicate how incredibly he has translated his skills to Mixed Martial Arts.  By the time he is done, he may well be remembered as the greatest submission fighter in MMA history.  The only problem is that his standup is very raw and his takedowns, while good, are probably not going to be enough to overcome good wrestlers.  If this fight goes to the ground, Maia will submit Marquardt, despite his excellent submission defense.  The only question is whether Maia can force Marquardt to fight his game.

Marquardt has been a top Middleweight for years, and for good reason.  One of the most well-rounded guys you will ever see, Marquardt has excellent grappling, great wrestling, and standup that is both technical and powerful.  Even more important is his wealth of experience.  From Pancrase to UFC, Marquardt has fought the best in the world for the huge majority of his career, and that kind of big-fight experience is something that no amount of training can simulate.  Marquardt also benefits from his excellent training camp with Greg Jackson in New Mexico, which provides both world-class training partners and world-class gameplanning.  To win this fight, he is definitely going to want to keep it standing.  He has good jiu-jitsu for a cross-training Mixed Martial Artist, but Maia is in a whole different league.

Ultimately, I think Marquardt’s superior standup, excellent wrestling, and experience are going to make the difference here.  Maia is better at jiu-jitsu than Marquardt is at anything, but I think Marquardt has the tools to keep this fight standing, where it will be extremely lopsided.

 Marquardt by TKO, round 2.