205 lbs.: Renato “Babalu” Sobral (32-8) vs. Gegard “The Dream Catcher” Mousasi (25-2-1)
The semi main event of the evening is a massive Light Heavyweight showdown between arguably the two best 205 pounders outside of UFC. Babalu has looked beastly since being dismissed from UFC, tearing his
opponents apart. Mousasi, in the meanwhile, has been destroying all comers in Japan, most recently knocking out top grappler Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza with a disturbing upkick. This fight was originally scheduled to take place at Aflliction 3, but Strikeforce stepped up when Affliction folded, so this extremely competitive fight will still happen.
Babalu has been a top 10 Light Heavyweight for years. Besides an upset loss to Jason Lambert, Sobral has lost only to top competition, and has only been defeated twice since 2003, a remarkable feat considering the level of competition he has faced. The secret to Babalu’s success is that he is a top-level fighter on the ground and in the standup game. He has knockout power and quick hands to complement great wrestling and awesome submissions. There is no one in the world at 205 pounds who can overwhelm Babalu in any aspect of the fight game.
Mousasi is just as well rounded as Babalu, although his standup is probably just slightly better and his wrestling a tiny bit worse. In terms of competition, the two are roughly equal, although over the last few fights Mousasi’s opponents have been a little bit better. Stylistically, I would give Mousasi a slight advantage over Sobral, considering that it is easier to exploit a mistake standing than it is to get a guy like Mousasi down.
This fight is as close to a wash as you will ever get. Both guys are at the top of their games, both have well-rounded skillsets, and both have fought and beaten tons of top-level opposition. Still, someone has to be the winner, and I think Mousasi is the safe bet in this one. His recent fights have been against awesome competition, including a win over Mark Hunt, a K-1 World Grand Prix Champion who outweighs him by 100 pounds.
I think Mousasi’s crisper standup will be the deciding factor here, earning him a KO victory midway through the third.
