UFC Lightweight Champion BJ Penn vs. Kenny Florian
Main Event Odds: (-260 Penn / +200 Florian) at Sportsbook.com
Prediction: I think Florian will be successful at evading Penn’s offense for a while, but eventually Penn will catch him with a hard flurry and drop him for the TKO in the third round.
The main event of the evening is a huge Lightweight title matchup between champion BJ “The Prodigy” Penn and challenger Kenny “KenFlo” Florian.
Florian has been destroying top contenders since his loss to Sean Sherk, while Penn is coming off a one-sided defeat against Georges St-Pierre. The question is whether Florian will be able to ride his momentum to a title win, or if BJ Penn will show the old form
that allowed him to embarrass some of the world’s best Lightweights.
Florian first made a name for himself on the first season of The Ultimate Fighter, where he made it all the way to the finals despite fighting a full 30 pounds above his natural weight. Originally coming from a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu background, Florian’s Muay Thai has improved constantly since his UFC debut to the point that he is one of the most dynamic and effective strikers in the division. A lot of this growth comes from his top-notch training camp at Mark DellaGrotte’s Sityodtong camp in Massachusetts. For this fight, he has the added bonus of training with Georges St. Pierre, who can claim two wins over Penn.
If Penn’s past performances at Lightweight are any indication, Florian is going to need all the extra help he can get. The only question mark about Penn has always been his cardio. In terms of technique and raw athleticism, Penn has no peer at 155. His technical boxing is amazing, he has plenty of punching power, and his jiu jitsu is out of this world. If he has a weak spot besides conditioning, it is his mediocre wrestling, but considering how good he is both standing and on the ground, it rarely presents an issue.
Stylistically, this is a bad match for Florian. Both guys have great standup, but Penn’s accuracy and handspeed are going to be hard for Florian to deal with. Florian is a counterstriker who likes to move backwards and make his opponents pay, but if he allows Penn to walk him down he is going to get annihilated. On the ground, the edge easily goes to Penn despite Florian’s black belt. Penn is the more technical, flexible, and explosive grappler by far.
Florian’s best chance in this one is to fight extremely conservatively and hope that Penn wears himself out chasing him around the ring. Staying out of BJ’s way once he starts pressing the issue, though, is a lot easier said than done.
I think Florian will be successful at evading Penn’s offense for a while, but eventually Penn will catch him with a hard flurry and drop him for the TKO in the third round.
