205 lbs. Forrest Griffin vs. Anderson Silva
Odds: (-350 Silva / +275 Griffin) at Sportsbook.com
Prediction: Most likely, Griffin will try to trade shots early and get blasted in the first round.
The semi-main event is a compelling spectacle fight which sees Middleweight champion Anderson “Spider” Silva move up to Light Heavyweight again to face former Light Heavyweight Champion Forrest Griffin.
Silva has dominated the Middleweight division in legendary fashion, destroying top contenders while dancing around to keep himself from falling asleep. He is looking to challenge himself by fighting larger opponents. Griffin is sure to put up a fight, and is world renowned for pulling off huge upsets, so this one is sure to be suspenseful.
Silva, a top contender for the pound for pound crown, has been completely unstoppable since debuting in the UFC. His vicious Muay Thai offense, elusive standup defense, ability to scramble, and world-class jiu jitsu make him one of the most formidable fighters in the history of the sport. He is so good that many of his recent fights have been quite boring because his opponents have absolutely no answer for his dynamic offense.
There is only one hole in Silva’s game, and that is wrestling. While he has shown an ability to scramble well and to fight off his back, he has notoriously poor takedown defense and has found himself in quite a few dangerous positions on the ground. No one, at 185 or 205, is going to beat Silva in a standup fight, period. The only way to stop him is to exploit his poor takedown defense and stay aggressive on the ground to keep him from escaping.
Forrest Griffin certainly has the ability to execute that gameplan, the question is whether or not he will actually do it. Coming into the fight with a size advantage, superior wrestling, and a stellar training camp at Xtreme Couture, Griffin actually has the tools to pull off a monster upset here. Unfortunately, he has also shown a tendency to throw caution to the wind and has often paid for it.
He was rocked early against Alex Shoenaur on The Ultimate Fighter, got destroyed when he tried to bumrush Keith Jardine, and walked into a lot of punishment from both Rashad Evans and Tito Ortiz. If Griffin comes charging in and tries to trade early, it is going to be an extremely short night for him. If he tries to use his weight to push Silva around in the greco roman clinch and goes for takedowns early and often, he is more than capable of controlling the fight from the top and grinding out a rugged decision.
In the end, it’s hard to pick against Anderson Silva, even against a guy as tough as Forrest. Forrest has the ability to win by executing a particular gameplan, but Silva is by far the more dangerous and dynamic fighter, especially standing. Most likely, Griffin will try to trade shots early and get blasted in the first round.
That said, a small bet on Griffin may not be a bad idea, as he is notoriously tough and does have some important stylistic advantages.
