Fight Details: 205 lbs. Renato “Babalu” Sobral (32-8) vs. Gegard “The Dream Catcher” Mousasi (25-2-1)
Fight Odds: (- 155 Mousasi / +125 Sobral) at Sportsbook.com
Prediction: I think Mousasi’s crisper standup will be the deciding factor here, and he’ll KO Babalu midway through the third round.
The semi main event of the evening is a massive Light Heavyweight showdown between arguably the two best 205 pounders outside of UFC.
Babalu has looked beastly since being dismissed from UFC, tearing his opponents apart. Mousasi, in the meanwhile, has been destroying all comers in Japan, most recently knocking out top grappler Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza with a disturbing upkick. This is as competitive as a fight can be, and the winner will be the clear top Light Heavyweight outside of the Octagon.
Babalu has been a top 10 Light Heavyweight for years. Besides an upset loss to Jason Lambert, Sobral has only lost to top competition, and has only lost two fights since 2003, a remarkable feat considering the level of competition he has faced. The secret to Babalu’s success is that he is a top-level fighter on the ground and in the standup game. He has knockout power and quick hands to complement great wrestling and awesome submissions. There is no one in the world at 205 pounds who can overwhelm Babalu in any aspect of the fight game.
Mousasi is just as well rounded as Babalu, although his standup is probably a little better and his wrestling a little worse. In terms of competition, the two are almost equal, although over the last few fights Mousasi’s opponents have been a little bit better. Stylistically, I would give a slight advantage to Mousasi in this one, since it is easier to exploit a mistake standing than it is to get a guy like Mousasi down.
This is as close to a wash as you will ever get. Both guys are at the top of their games, both have well-rounded skillsets, and both have fought and beaten tons of top-level opposition. Still, someone has to be the winner, and I think Mousasi is the safe bet in this one. His recent fights have been against awesome competition, including a win over Mark Hunt, a K-1 World Grand Prix Champion who outweighs him by 100 pounds.
I think Mousasi’s crisper standup will be the deciding factor here, and he’ll KO Babalu midway through the third round.
