185 lbs.: Dan Henderson (24-7) vs. Michael Bisping (17-1)
Fight Odds – (Henderson -200 / Bisbing +160)
Pat’s Prediction – It should be a very competitive fight, but I see Bisping’s hand being raised at the end following a 29-28 unanimous decision.
The second bout of the evening sees the culmination of the most recent season of The Ultimate Fighter as opposing coaches Dan “Hollywood” Henderson and Michael “The Count” Bisping square off with one another. Henderson is desperately seeking a rematch with Middleweight champion Anderson Silva, and a win here would all but cement him as the top contender. Bisping, for his part, is also trying to cement himself as a top player at Middleweight after his recent drop down from Light Heavyweight. Bisping is no stranger to championship pictures.
Going undefeated for most of his early career, Bisping captured the Cage Rage and Cage Warriors Light Heavyweight championships before participating in and winning The Ultimate Fighter 3. After his TUF win, Bisping continued his winning ways in the 205 pound division. Eventually, though, he ran into rival Matt Hamill, and was thoroughly handled despite being gifted the single worst decision in the sport’s history. He followed up that lackluster performance with his first ever loss, a decision against future Light Heavyweight champ “Sugar” Rashad Evans.
That loss prompted a drop to 185, where Bisping quickly regained his winning form, dominating Jason Day in the first round and easily handling tough brawler Chris Leben. Bisping’s best gifts are his natural athleticism, work ethic, and well-roundedness. While Bisping doesn’t have Henderson’s wrestling or knockout power, he is nonetheless a better technical boxer and has superior submissions. He has another advantage, also, in that his training partner Quinton Jackson fought and defeated Henderson already.
Henderson, for his part, is one of the most decorated fighters ever. An amazing Greco Roman wrestler with a legendary right hand, Henderson came into the UFC riding high, holding the PRIDE FC Light Heavyweight and Middleweight championships and having just lambasted Wanderlei Silva. His return to UFC was a rocky one, though. He was outwrestled and neutralized in a title unification match against Quinton Jackson, and then choked out by Middleweight champion Anderson Silva after handily winning the first round. He won his next two fights, a unanimous decision against newcomer Rousimar Palhares and a split decision against Rich Franklin at Light Heavyweight, but did not look impressive in either performance.
Though Henderson is the clear favorite going into this fight, I think it is Bisping’s to lose, for a number of reasons. Firstly, you will no doubt hear Joe Rogan assert that 185 pounds is Henderson’s “natural” weight class. “Natural” or not, though, all of Henderson’s most impressive performances have been at Light Heavyweight, and he frequently looks depleted and lethargic when he drops down. Secondly, Bisping has far better training partners. The days of Team Quest being a top-tier camp are long since gone, and Bisping brings in fighters from all over and spars with all of them, hard, every day. Thirdly, though Henderson has more powerful takedowns and a more devastating right hand, Bisping is the much more technical fighter overall.
I see Bisping pulling off the upset, using footwork to avoid Henderson’s huge looping rights and making him pay with counter punches. While it’s unrealistic to assume that Bisping can completely prevent Henderson from taking him down, he should be able to nullify his advantage on the ground with positioning and submission attempts.
It should be a very competitive fight, but I see Bisping’s hand being raised at the end following a 29-28 unanimous decision.
