Heavyweight Champion Brock Lesnar (3-1) vs. Frank Mir (12-3) for Title
Main Event Odds – (-240 Lesnar / +190 Mir ) at Sportsbook.com
Prediction: I think Lesnar will make Mir pay standing, and if he scores a knockdown, I expect to see him stay on his feet and let Mir get up, only to bruise him some more. Lesnar by KO, round 1.
The main event is a highly-anticipated rematch, in which Heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar and Interim champion Frank Mir will once again collide to settle scores and unify their title belts. In their first meeting, Lesnar brought the pain to Mir in a big way before making a rookie mistake and getting caught in one of Mir’s deadly leglocks. The question is whether Lesnar’s unmatched size and power will overwhelm Mir totally this time, or whether Mir will be able to put his world-class jiu-jitsu to use yet again and defeat the inexperienced Lesnar.
Frank Mir’s heart and determination cannot be denied. After capturing the UFC Heavyweight Title, he suffered a near-fatal car crash that would have ended most fighters’ careers. Undaunted, Mir fought through over a year of physical therapy to return, against all odds, to the Octagon. His return was not a smooth one, and he suffered some early road bumps, most notably a mangling at the hands of “Pe de Pano” Cruz. He refused to give up, though, and put together a string of good performances, including his submission win over Lesnar and a career-best performance in which he completely lambasted future Hall of Famer Antonio Rodrigo Noguiera.
Despite his previous victory, though, this fight will probably be the toughest test of Mir’s career. He is completely dwarfed by the titanic Lesnar, and if this fight plays out like their first meeting, there is no guarantee that Mir will be able to weather the early storm of Lesnar’s aggression. Most problematic for Mir, though, is that his only real chance of winning is with a submission. His jiu-jitsu is light years ahead of Lesnar’s, but in order to implement it he will have to get Lesnar to the ground, which is a daunting task to say the least.
Lesnar, a man-mountain who has to cut a sizable amount of weight to reach the Heavyweight maximum of 265, has managed to compensate for his inexperience and lack of technique through overwhelming physical power, wrestling, and surprisingly, vicious punching power. Mir, Randy Couture, and Heath Herring have all felt the power Lesnar packs in his punches, and none of them was able to deal with it. Lesnar was foiled by his lack of experience against Mir the first time, as well as by a horrible standup when he was unloading punches on the ground. Someone with Lesnar’s experience in combat sports, though, is unlikely to make the same mistake twice. Even though he is most known for his wrestling, I expect Lesnar to turn this into a pure boxing match. Mir’s wrestling is nowhere near good enough to get Lesnar down, and Lesnar’s superior size, reach, and power will make life miserable for him on the feet.
Not to take anything away from Mir, who is clearly a top Heavyweight, but I don’t see a way for him to win this fight. Lesnar, once bitten by Mir’s stellar jiu-jitsu, will be twice shy about going to the ground a second time. Mir’s standup is good, but Lesnar’s massive hands pack way too much power for him to take many shots.
I think Lesnar will make Mir pay standing, and if he scores a knockdown, I expect to see him stay on his feet and let Mir get up, only to bruise him some more. Lesnar by KO, round 1.
