Joe Stevenson vs. Nate Diaz
In the second of three huge Lightweight matchups on the night, two past Ultimate Fighter winners will collide in the forms of Joe “Daddy” Stevenson and Stockton’s own Nate Diaz. Both guys have incredible ground games, but extremely different builds and styles, which should make for an interesting fight.
Diaz -125 / Stevenson -105 Odds
Stevenson, a long-time MMA veteran despite his relatively young age, used his wrestling and submission skills to propel himself to the top of the Lightweight division. Recently, though, he has seen his success crumble, dropping three of his last four fights and being submitted twice. Even so, Stevenson is still a very dangerous opponent for anyone. His standup is mediocre at best, but he has powerful wrestling and very good submissions, especially his guillotine choke.
Nate Diaz, physically at least, is Stevenson’s exact opposite. Where Stevenson is short, stout, and compact, Diaz is tall, rangy, and lanky. Also, like Stevenson, Diaz enters this fight coming off a loss, although the split decision he dropped to Clay Guida was one of the worst cases of judging I have ever seen. Against Joe “Daddy”, Diaz has a clear edge in striking, both in terms of range and technical prowess.
Where this fight will get interesting is on the ground. Diaz’s wrestling doesn’t hold a candle to Stevenson’s, and Stevenson has the clear edge in physical power. Diaz, though, has vastly superior jiu jitsu, especially from his back. Both fighters have glaring strengths and weaknesses, which makes this a very difficult fight to predict.
Ultimately, though, I think Diaz will shock a lot of pundits, wriggling out from under Stevenson’s top control, making him pay with jabs and unorthodox hooks, and confounding the much shorter Stevenson standing en route to a unanimous decision.
