182 lbs. (Catchweight): “Ruthless” Robbie Lawler vs. Jake Shields
The main event is the second of the night’s two catchweight attractions, as former Elite XC Middleweight champion “Ruthless” Robbie Lawler will face off with grappling phenom and former Elite XC Welterweight champion Jake Shields at 182 pounds.
Shields is coming up all the way from 170 to face Lawler, largely because there is no legitimate competition for him outside of the UFC. This bout has a bit of old school flair, as it pits a pure striker in Lawler against Shields, who is essentially a pure grappler. Style vs. style matchups are becoming less and less frequent as the sport evolves, and this is as high-profile an example as you are likely to see.
Robbie Lawler has been around the sport for years, and has cemented himself a place in the history books as one of the better Middleweight fighters ever. A powerful striker with good technique and a surplus of knockout power, Lawler is a threat to any fighter living on the feet. He is currently riding an extremely impressive five fight win streak, having beaten the likes of Scott Smith, Joey Villasenor, Murilo “Ninja” Rua, and Frank Trigg, all quality opponents. Lawler’s biggest problem is that, like many other fighters who originated at the Miletich camp, his ground game and submission defense are horrible. His standup is so good that it rarely becomes an issue, but he has a huge soft target on the ground that a skilled grappler can easily exploit.
Jake Shields is exactly the type of skilled fighter who has the best chance of exploiting that weakness. Shields’ jiu jitsu is out of control good, and unlike many top BJJ players, he has the wrestling game to complement it. Few men in any weight class are as skilled as Shields at taking an opponent down, controlling them from the top, and locking on a submission for the win. His standup is surprisingly good, as well, but is generally overshadowed by his nearly unmatched skills on the ground. That Shields is even taking this fight says a lot about the gap between him and the rest of the welterweights not signed by UFC.
To put it bluntly, I don’t think Lawler has a hope in this one. Even with his weight advantage, Lawler just isn’t skilled enough to prevent Shields from taking him down and submitting him with relative ease.
I would be shocked if this one went to a second round.
