UFC 95: Diego Sanchez vs. Joe Stevenson Prediction

Diego Sanchez vs. Joe Stevenson

The main event of the evening pits Ultimate Fighter winner Joe “Daddy” Stevenson against Ultimate Fighter winner Diego “Nightmare” Sanchez in a Lightweight bout that is almost guaranteed to showcase some top-level grappling. This marks Sanchez’s first fight at 155 pounds, after recent mixed success at Welterweight. Stevenson, for his part, will be looking to reassert himself after recent manglings at the hands of Lightweight champion BJ Penn and top contender Kenny Florian.   Sanchez -325 / Stevenson +250

Sanchez is well-remembered by Ultimate Fighter viewers for his bizarre antics on the inaugural season. Constantly saying bizarre things and striking awkward yoga poses, Sanchez nevertheless proved that winning the show was his “destiny” by dismantling all of his opponents. Sanchez continued to rack up wins after the show, utilizing his excellent wrestling and submission game to overwhelm opponents. After back to back losses to Josh Koscheck and Jon Fitch, though, Sanchez began to consider a move to 155. Despite winning his last two fights at Welterweight, Sanchez decided to make the move anyway, and is leaping right into the fray against a tough contender in Joe Stevenson.

Joe “Daddy” Stevenson, a solid wrestler and master of the guillotine choke, has been fighting professionally since his mom had to drive him to shows. He has fared very well since winning The Ultimate Fighter, losing only to the top two men in the division plus the dangerous Josh Neer. His guillotine is one of the most feared holds in the sport, as solid grapplers such as Dokonjonosuke Mishima, Gleison Tibau, and Rich Clementi can attest. Stevenson’s stand up, especially his boxing, are pretty awful, but then again, Sanchez is hardly Floyd Mayweather. The lack of striking skill from both fighters almost ensures that this one will be a ground war.

Despite Stevenson’s quality grappling and wrestling, I think the edge in both categories has to go to Sanchez. When you couple that with the size advantage Sanchez will undoubtedly bring with him on fight night, it will prove too much for Joe “Daddy” to overcome.

I see Sanchez grinding out a tough unanimous decision win and asserting himself as a force in the Lightweight division.