Mark Coleman vs. Mauricio “Shogun” Rua
The semi main event sees a hotly anticipated rematch, with UFC Hall of Famer Mark “The Hammer” Coleman returning to the Octagon for the first time in ten years to take on Mauricio “Shogun” Rua. The last time these two men met, a near-riot broke out in the ring, with Coleman and his Hammer House team engaging in fisticuffs with Rua, his brother Murilo, and Wanderlei Silva. This matchup is chock full of question marks, but there’s no question that these two men legitimately dislike each other, which should make for an exciting fight. Rua -365 / Coleman +285
Probably the most obvious question mark is Mark Coleman’s age. At nearly 45 years of age, many would argue that Coleman’s best years are long since past. Compounding the issue is Coleman’s 2 year absence from competition. At his age, and with such a gigantic layoff, can Coleman possibly compete at the highest level? Another question is just exactly what Coleman’s highest level is at this stage. A former Olympic team member, no one can question Coleman’s wrestling abilities, but his standup and submission defense are both variables.
Rua is another fighter surrounded by questions. In PRIDE, he looked unstoppable before Coleman drove him into the mat and snapped his arm like a twig. After putting together a string of wins, Rua was completely overwhelmed in his UFC debut by Forrest Griffin. Rua looked listless and out of shape in the fight, which many attributed to his ongoing struggle with injuries. It is up in the air how much these injuries will affect Rua’s performance, but if he shows up in poor shape again he very well might find himself tossed around by Coleman like he was in their first matchup. Another question about Rua is his wrestling. Despite his Chute Boxe roots and that camp’s reputation, Shogun has never been a very effective standup striker. His clinch work is pretty good, but his boxing, footwork, and defense are all fairly terrible. It is unlikely that he could use his striking to keep Coleman at bay and prevent takedowns.
In the end, this fight will be decided by Coleman’s submission defense and top control. He should be able to take the fight to the ground, but Shogun is an accomplished grappler with a dangerous guard, and Coleman has repeatedly displayed an inability to defend armbars from the guard. I see Coleman controlling the fight early, but in the end his long layoff and lack of world class training partners will burn him.
Shogun by submission in round 2.
