Nate Diaz vs Josh Neer
Prediction: Neer will slip up and Nate will catch him from guard with a slick armbar for the submission, late in round 2.
The main event of the evening sees Stockton’s second favorite son, Ultimate Fighter winner Nate Diaz (9-2), attempt to take another step toward a shot at B.J. Penn. To do it, though he will have to step over Josh “The Dentist” Neer (21-6), a tough, well-rounded, seasoned fighter from the world-class Miletich Martial Arts camp.
Neer, who possesses a surplus of punching power and a dangerous grappling offense, will prove to be a formidable obstacle. “The Dentist” has amassed an impressive resume of UFC fights, with losses to Drew Fickett, Josh Burkman, and his opponents brother Nick balanced out by impressive wins the likes of Melvin Guillard, Joe “Daddy” Stevenson, and Din Thomas. His biggest advantage going into this fight is going to be his well-roundedness. Neer’s game has no huge gaps. He has finished 10 fights by KO or TKO, 10 by submission, and also has good cardio, a good shin, and above average wrestling. Being able to fight effectively from any position is going to be his biggest asset against Diaz, who is much more one-dimensional.
Diaz, though, has a few advantages too. Most notably, his jiu jitsu is on a much higher level than Neer’s. Neer has good defense and a quality submission attack, but Nathan Diaz is one of the most effective fighters in the world at translating his BJJ to success in the octagon, which he illustrated in his last UFC fight by triangle choking highly-regarded black belt Kurt Pelligrino so tightly that he was celebrating and posing while the choke was locked. Another advantage for Diaz is that his brother and training partner Nick has already defeated Neer by submission, so he will have added insight about technique in his training camp. Plus, if Nick can submit Neer, it is highly likely that Nate can as well, since even though Nick’s jiu jitsu is slightly better, Nate is much more focused on using it during his fights.
I see this fight playing out almost identically to Nate’s fight against Kurt Pelligrino. Diaz will take some punishment standing and be controlled throughout the first round, but eventually Neer will slip up and Nate will catch him from guard with a slick armbar for the submission, late in round 2.
Sportsbook.com Odds
- Diaz (-200)
- Neer (+160)
Betus.com Odds
- Diaz (-200)
- Neer (+150)
