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Matt Hamill vs. Rich Franklin
An intriguing match-up that sees former Middleweight Champion Rich ‘Ace’ Franklin move up a weight class to test the waters in the 205 pound division. Having been brutally stopped twice by reigning Middleweight Champ Anderson Silva, Franklin is hoping the move to Light Heavyweight will be the first step on his path back to a title belt. That first step will not be an easy one, though, as Franklin must get through dangerous wrestler and Ultimate Fighter standout Matt Hamill in order to keep even the faintest glimmer of championship hope alive.
Primarily a striker, Franklin will definitely be looking to stay outside and exploit his punching advantage against Hamill, who has a very clear edge in the strength and wrestling departments. Franklin will try to sprawl and brawl, stuffing Hamill’s single and double leg attempts and then throwing powerful flurries trying to put the impressive rookie to sleep. Even though he was brutally KO’d twice by Silva, don’t expect Franklin to be gun shy in the least. He has a ton of experience, and knows that he is the better striker by far, and will come out with fists flying trying to right his ship and get back on the winning track.
Hamill’s gameplan is equally predictable. He will try to use his vast wrestling experience, freakish strength, and amazing cardio to control Franklin on the ground from to position and rain down fists and elbows. While Hamill is far less experienced than Franklin, this is not a match-up that will be won with experience. This is an old-school “style vs. style” fight, and it will come down to which guy can execute their own gameplan more effectively. If Franklin is able to stuff Hamill’s shots early, he will undoubtedly eventually land a devastating flurry that will end the fight. On the other side of the coin, though, Franklin is going to be in for an extremely long night if Hamill is able to secure a takedown early, as ‘Ace’ lacks the submission prowess to catch Hamill from his back.
To me, Hamill is the upset pick of the night. While he is clearly outmatched on the feet, Franklin’s sprawl is not nearly so dangerous as someone like Chuck Liddell’s and Hamill should be able to power his way into some double legs, which will allow him to pin down Franklin and control the pace of the bout.
Look for Hamill to grind his way to an upset unanimous decision.
Karo Parisyan vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida
Parisyan, once considered the #1 contender for a Welterweight Title shot before havin ghis hopes derailed by injuries, has had an up and down road since then. Coming off a shocking TKO loss to Thiago Alves in his last outing, you can be sure that the always-fiery Armenian will be looking to come back with a vengeance and hopefully reassert himself in the crowded #1 contender race yet again.
Standing in his way is well-rounded Japanese fighter Yoshiyuki Yoshida, who is making his second appearance in UFC, coming off an impressive Anaconda Choke victory over Ultimate Fighter alum Jon ‘War Machine’ Koppenhaver. Yoshida also boasts an impressive victory over the highly-regarded Akira Kikuchi. Against Parisyan, I expect Yoshida to push the action on the feet, looking to score a knockout or TKO against the Judo expert.
Karo’s strategy is nothing if not predictable. Expect him to approach this fight the same way he approaches every fight, looking to get in his opponent’s face and land punches to set up one of his trademark judo throws.
While he has never finished an opponent by KO or TKO, Parisyan is very good at using his pugnacious striking style to throw challengers off their game and set up opening for him to get close and send their bodies flying. Look for him to stick to his guns, utilizing this strategy yet again en route to yet another unanimous decision win.
Dan Henderson vs. Rousimar Palhares
Former PRIDE 185 and 205 pound champion Dan Henderson came to UFC with two belts and a world of hype. After dropping his 205 pound title to Quinton Jackson in his UFC debut, Henderson dropped down to 185, where he manhandled Anderson Silva for one round before falling apart and succumbing to a rear naked choke in the second round. Now, he will look to regain his championship form as he faced dangerous Brazilian Jiu Jitsu blackbelt Rousimar “Toquinho” Palhares.
Palhares, a relatively inexperience Brazilian Top Team product, impressed in his UFC debut, transitioning a rear naked chocke into a gorgeous armbar that finished off dangerous veteran Ivan Salaverry in spectacular fashion. Toquinho’s strong suit is very clearly his ground game, which is world class. Six of his eight wins have come by way of submission in the first round. If this fight goes to the ground, Palhares clearly outclasses Henderson in the submission game, an could prove to be an extremely dangerous oponent.
Henderson, however, is uniquely suited to thwarting Palhares’ ground attack. An extremely accomplished Greco Roman wrestler, Henderson will prove extremely difficult to take down. If this fight does go to the ground, you can take it to the bank that Henderson will be the man in top position. Even then, though, Palhares’ Jiu Jitsu is so good that Henderson would be puttin himself in a lot of danger by trying to ground and pound his way to victory.
I see this fight staying standing for the majority of the action, with Henderson using his advantages in experience and wrestling to stuff Palhares’ takedown attempts and trying to put him away with the famous Dan Henderson right hand, which has racked up a laundry list of victims throughout “Hollywood” Henderson’s illustrious career.
I expect Henderson to control the pace of the bout early on, keeping Palhares at bay before connection with one of thos much-touted right hands and putting Palhares away in the second round.
Nate Marquardt vs. Martin Kampmann
Seven time King of Pancrase Nate Marquardt returns to UFC after suffering a highly controversial split decision loss to Thales Leites in his last appearance. The accomplished veteran was firmly in control of the fight from bell to bell, but lost due to repeated fouling. He looks to get back on track to another shot at Anderson Silva’s 185 pound title, taking on the always-dangerous martin Kampmann.
Kampmann, a well rounded fighter from Randy Couture’s Xtreme Couture gym, will have other plans come Saturday. A well-rounded fighter with knockout power and a dangerous submission game, Kampmann has not lost a fight since 2004. After debuting in UFC at Fight Night 6 in 2006, Kampmann has put together a four fight win streak which includes impressive victories over opponents such as Drew McFederies, Jorge Rivera, and Thales Leites. As impressive as those wins are, though, there can be no denying that Marquardt is a clear step up in competition.
For his part, Nathan Marquardt has been around the block. The seven-time Middleweight King of Pancrase has been extremely impressive during his UFC stint, losing only to Leites and reigning champ and Pound for Pound # candidate Anderson Silva. While he is not always the most exciting fighter in the world, Marquardt has a vast array of skills and all the experience necessary to put them to good use. A dangerous wrestler with good submissions, Marquardt has conquered such accomploished grapplers as Jeremy Horn and Dean Lister, even managing to submit Horn with a guillotine choke.
Kapmann’s best bet for a victory will probably come in the standup game, as Marquardt is notoriously hard to submit. For his own part, Marquardt will look to take the fight to the mat and control position, dealing out damage and attempting to stile Kampmann’s submission attempts.
I think the edge in strength and wrestling goes to Marquardt, who should be able to avoid Kampmann’s attempts en route to grinding out a unanimous decision with ground and pound and positional dominance.
UFC 88 Undercard Picks
Tim Boetsch over Michael Patt by KO
Dong Hyun Kim over Matt Brown by KO
Ryo Chonan over Roan Carneiro by Decision
Kurt Pelligrino over Thiago Tavares by submission
Jason MacDonald over Jason Lambert by submission
