Update: For the October 4 Elite XC Predictions go to our new page.
For the main event prediction please we have dedicated a specific page for the Lawler vs Smith rematch. To bet on any of these fights you can pick a mma sportsbook and begin.
Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva vs Justin Eilers
In Elite XC’s inaugural Heavyweight Title bout, the heavily-favored Silva will take on former UFC Heavyweight Justin Eilers in what promises to be a stand up war. The only time this fight will go to the ground is when one of these two knocks the other one out. Silva, a titan of a man, is coming off an uninspring, sluggish split decision victory against bloated former UFC Heavyweight Champion Ricco Rodriguez. In Silva’s defense, even the much-depleted Rodriguez of today has a quality standup game and the kind of grappling that is going to make any striker slightly timid in the ring. Eilers, who is best remembered for being knocked out in highlight reel fashion by Paul Buentello and Andrei Arlovski consecutively, is a far more ideal opponent for “Bigfoot”. With no worry of being taken down, Silva will be able to work his considerable striking skills to full effect, which does not bode well for Eilers. Much like one of Silva’s previous knockout victims, “Cabbage” Correira, Eilers is a slow but powerful striker whose career is severely hampered by a suspect chin.
Pat Predicts: Look for this fight to end very similarly to Silva vs. Correira, with “Bigfoot” exploiting Eilers’ chin and sending him crashing to the mat in the first round to become Elite XC’s first-ever Heavyweight Champion.
Jake Shields vs Nick “The Goat” Thompson
Easily the most competitive fight on the card, Cesar Gracie standout Jake Shields will be taking on Nick Thompson, who trains with such monsters as Sean Sherk and Brock Lesnar at Minnesota Martial Arts Academy. This is the kind of fight that truly transcends MMA’s “style vs. style” origins, as both fighters are extremely well-rounded and either man could take this fight from any position.
This is the hardest sort of fight to predict, as Shields is extremely dangerous on the ground but can also hold his own in the standup game without any difficulty. While Shields, who trains with the Diaz Brothers at Cesar Gracie’s camp, has a dangerous submission attack, his primary strength is getting the fight to the ground and controlling his opponent from the top. This may prove a tall task, though, considering that Thompson trains with some of the best wrestlers in Mixed Martial Arts today in the form of Sherk and Lesnar. In addition, Thompson is an extremely dangerous ground fighter himself, having earned far more than half of his victories by way of submission. Both men are so accomplished at grappling that I highly doubt this fight will end by submission. The deciding factor, in my opinion, will be wrestling. Whichever fighter can wind up on top on the ground and better control his opponent will emerge from this fight victorious. In my eyes, Nick Thompson holds the edge in this category not only because of the caliber of wrestlers he trains with on a daily basis, but because of his size advantage. Shields is a fairly typical Welterweight, but Thompson is one of those rare fighters, like Gleison Tibau at the last UFC show, who can cut a tremendous amount of weight with no negative effect on his performance in the fight.
Pat Predicts: To me, Thompson is the best underdog pick of the night, as he will have the slight edge in the standup game and be able to control the pace of the fight en route to a unanimous decision victory.
Nick Diaz vs Thomas “The Wildman” Denny
The latest installment in the roller coaster ride that is Nick Diaz’s career. Diaz, fighting in his hometown of California, will look to put his once-promising career back on track against journeyman Thomas Denny. Ever unpredictable, Diaz badly needs a convincing win in this fight to prevent further tarnishing of the luster that once surrounded his name. Diaz, a former UFC standout in the 170 pound division, has had an up and down road over the last few years. After dropping 3 straight fights in UFC’s welterweight division after a promising start, Diaz moved down to Lightweight, shocking the world by surviving a brutal beating before catching the widely-regarded #1 lightweight in the world at the time, Takanori Gomi, in a breathtaking gogoplata. Shortly after, though, the biggest win of Diaz’s career was overturned by the California State Athletic Commission when he tested positive for marijuana use. After moving to Elite Xc, who set their Lightweight weight limit at 160 pounds just to accomodate him, Diaz’s up and down journey continued. In his debut, he looked extremely shaky, taking a razor-thin split decision against huge underdog “Iron” Mike Aina. Most observers wrote this off and chalked up Diaz’s poor performance to ring rust, nerves, and a lack of proper training. Diaz’s woes continued in his next fight though, when his face was mangled by another underdog, KJ Noons, en route to a loss when the fight was stopped due to cuts.
After a six month layoff which saw another Diaz fight cancelled due to marijuana use, Nick returned to action in Japan, causing largely unknown Katsuya Inoue’s corner to throw in the towel in the first round due to strikes. Just over one month later, Diaz returned to Elite XC, working over Mushin Corbbrey en route to a TKO victory in a fight for which he weighed in a full eight pounds over the limit. Denny, a nearly 10 year veteran of the sport and longtime staple of King of the Cage shows, has had a fairly successful career interrupted by losses to literally every single fighter he has ever faced who would be recognizable to a mainstream audience. Primarily a grappler who has finished more than half of his victories with submissions, Denny is being set up for failure in this bout in a big way. For one thing, his strength is also Diaz’s strength, but it will be hard for Denny to hang with Diaz, who is a Cesar Gracie Black Belt in jiu jitsu, on the ground. One of Diaz’s problems throughout his career has been a tendency to overrate his own striking, opting to stand and trade with guys he could probably finish easily if he just took the fight to the ground. In this case, though, Diaz really does have a sizable striking advantage, with his elusive head movement and accurate, peppering jab. In addition, Denny is being made to face the man Gary Shaw would like to be the face of Elite’s Lightweight division in his own hometown. With Diaz’s sizable advantage in both striking and grappling, Denny’s best hope in this fight is that Diaz fails his pre-fight drug test, which is hardly out of the question considering his history.
Pat Predicts: Short of that, though, look for Diaz to press his striking advantage before finishing this fight by TKO in the second round.
Shayna “The Queen of Spades” Baszler vs Cristiane “Cyborg” Santos
Yet another classic striker versus grappler matchup, this time in Elite XC’s much talked-about women’s division. Santos, who sports a perfect 4-0 record, is coming off 3 consecutive stoppages, all from strikes, on smaller Brazilian shows. Baszler, on the other hand, is a dangerous grappler who, at 9-4, has never seen a fight go the distance, garnering the submission in all 9 of her professional wins. Baszler has been finished twice by strikes, so look for her to press her experience advantage and work to get this fight to the mat as quickly as possible.
Pat Predicts: In the end, Baszler’s superior experience and grappling technique should prevail, by way armbar in the first frame.
Wilson Reis vs Bryan Caraway
Reis and Caraway face off in what promises to be a ground battle, as both guys are known to prefer the grappling game. Reis, a largely unproven 4-0 fighter, is making his third appearance for Elite XC, and is riding a four fight win streak including three consecutive victories by way of rear naked choke. Unfortunately for him, Caraway is also a prolific jiu-jitsu fighter, and also has a large edge in experience.
Pat Predicts: Look for this fight to hit the ground almost immediately, with Caraway controlling the action before catching Reis with an armbar in the second round.
Rafael “Feijao” Cavalcante vs Travis “The Gladiator” Galbraith
An intriguing matchup between two lesser known fighters, this looks to be the latest installment in the ongoing “Striker vs. Grappler” saga that is as old as the sport itself. Galbraith, a Canadian journeyman, has won the huge majority of his fights by submission, and sports an impressive 15-5 professional record. Cavalcante, although no slouch on the ground himself, prefers to bang his opponents out standing. At 6-1, the only blemish on Cavalcante’s record came by way of DQ after an illegal kick against fellow Brazilian and UFC alum Marcio “Pe de Pano” Cruz. Clearly, Galbraith has the edge when it comes to fight experience, having not only fought more times, but having faced off with much more prominent fighters, including Joe Doerkson and UFC Welterweight Champion Georges St. Pierre. Worth noting, though, is that Galbraith has suffered a loss every time he has stepped up his level of competition, even suffering a TKO loss to fellow journeyman Kazuhiro Nakamura. There is no denying that Cavalcante’s striking is superior to Nakamura’s, and his ground game should definitely be good enough to keep him out of trouble against Galbraith.
Pat Predicts: Look for “Feijao” to deny Galbraith’s takedown attempts before putting him to sleep with strikes in Round 1.
