For the main event we have a special page for our Jackson vs Griffin prediction.
Josh Koscheck Vs. Chris Lytle
This will be a great fight between two very talented welterweight contenders. Both fighters were a part of TUF in different seasons.
Josh ‘KO’ Koscheck is coming off a tough win over Dustin Hazelett with a second round knock out. Hazelett, a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu specialist, gave Koscheck a great battle that went back-and-forth.
Koscheck is a former NCAA wrestling champion. His strengths are his superior wrestling skills and aggressiveness. He has been working on his standup, but will be facing a former boxer. Koscheck will most likely stick to his roots in this fight and go for a take-down with a ground and pound. I’m interested to see if he will stand and trade shots with Lytle. In the past Koscheck’s striking is wild, with little accuracy.
Lytle is a very well rounded veteran to the sport. He is a former professional boxer with great submission skills. Lytle is also coming off a win from UFC 81 against newcomer Kyle Bradely, with an impressive first round stoppage due to strikes in 33 seconds. Lytle has won three of his last four fights and looking to add Koscheck to the list. I think this will be a good match-up for Lytle. He has trouble in fights when he is faced against good strikers, which Koscheck is not. Lytle possesses excellent, accurate punch combinations and can follow it up with great submission skills. 17 of his 25 wins have come by a submission attempt.
If they stand and trade shots, Lytle will get the best of it, forcing Koscheck to go for the take down. Lytle does not go down easily and has a good sprawl defense. If Koscheck is successful in taking Lytle down he will not have an easy time getting through his guard. Lytle has seen and fought against everything and more that Koscheck has to throw at him.
I see Koscheck being able to over power Lytle and use his wrestling to stay on top most of the fight. Koscheck will score points with take-downs and a few slams to win by a split decision.
Tyson Griffin Vs. Marcus Aurelio
This will be an exciting match-up between a jiu-jitsu expert Marcus Aurelio taking on a heavy handed and great wrestler in Tyson Griffin. Expect this fight to be action packed and to go back and forth. I feel Aurelio, a (+275) underdog pulling off the upset Saturday.
Aurelio (16-5) trains with American Top Team and has faced very tough opponents. He’s coming in confident after a spectacular win at UFC Fight Night 13 over Ryan Roberts with an arm bar in just 16 seconds. He also has victories over Takanori Gomi, and Rich Clementi.
Aurelio needs to take this fight to the mat where he is comfortable and effective. He has remarkable submission skills with 10 of his 16 wins coming off submissions. If he stands and punches with Griffin, he will most likely get the worst of it. Aurelio has made his name from his Pride Fighting career, drawing the attention of the UFC. He has won his last two fights and win over Griffin will surely get him more respect in the octagon. Griffin will be able to take down Aurelio, but this may work in Aurelio’s favor since he prefers the ground over striking.
Griffin (11-1) is considered a top 155 pound contender and is on a three fight since losing to Frank Edgar at UFC 67. He is very exciting and explosive in the octagon. His last four fight have gone to a decision, but he’s always working to make things happen. Griffin has excellent wrestling and striking skills, but lacks in the submission Jiu-Jitsu area. His wrestling is up top with the best and can take down opponents when he wants you to go down. He is the only fighter to date to have beaten WEC superstar Urijah Faber by referee stoppage.
Aurelio is a dangerous opponent for Tyson and shouldn’t be as big as a favorite at (-350). Aurelio (+280) underdog is more experienced and has the advantage if he can get it to the ground. Griffin will have the advantage striking, but is a wrestler at heart and will eventually take Aurelio down. Aurelio will have no problem fighting on his back where he can catch Griffin with a submission.
Aurelio at (+280) is just too good to pass up. I’m taking Aurelio by a third round submission victory.
Patrick Cote vs. Ricardo Almeida
This fight could possibly be for a shot or next in line to take on Anderson Silva. They are both coming off a rally of impressive wins. Expect to see what both fighters are capable of putting together in the octagon come Saturday night.
The Canadian middleweight Patrick ‘The Predator’ Cote is riding on a four fight win streak. Cote currently trains with Brazilian Top Team based in Canada along with Georges St. Pierre. Cote is a former TKO light heavyweight champion and is currently the TKO middleweight champion after defeating Jason Day in 2007.
Cote (12-4) is an excellent striker with power in both hands. His last performance was a very powerful TKO victory over Drew McFedries who just last week knocked out Marvin Eastman. Cote definitely has the advantage if this fight stays up, but on the ground Almeida has much better submission skills. Cote’s boxing has looked very good over his last four fights, stopping three of his last four opponents by punches. I’m sure Cote will come into this fight wanting to strike and look to end it quickly.
Almeida (9-2), has not competed in the UFC since 2002, but put his name back up quickly with a beautiful guillotine choke over Rob Yundt earlier this year. He is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu expert and a third degree black belt under the great Renzo Gracie. Almeida has competed in the UFC, Pride Fighting Championship, and is a former middleweight King of Pancrase.
Almeida is on a seven fight win streak. He will probably come out and throw a few punches with Cote. Then look for his opportunity to take Cote down and hunt for submission attempts. It will be a tough test for each of them. If this fight stays up, the advantage will definitely go to Cote and on the ground to Almeida. Almeida will test Cote’s ground game for sure and Cote’s last loss was due to an arm bar.
I don’t see Cote pulling it off. Almeida is more well-rounded and more experienced. I’m taking Almeida for another upset of the night with a hard fought 3rd round submission victory.
Jorge Gurgel Vs. Cole Miller
Jorge Gurgel (12-3) will take on fellow TUF alumni Cole Miller (13-3). This should be an exciting match between to men with great submission skills. People have been skeptical about Gurgel and fighting in the UFC because of his friendship with Rich Franklin. Saturday will be his chance to prove MMA fans wrong.
Miller is going to have the advantage in many ways. He is much taller , better striker, and has better submission skills. Anywhere the fight goes, Miller should get the best of it. Gurgel may have advantage wrestling, but his small frame will make it difficult to take down the long, lanky body of Miller. Miller trains with American Top Team, so we know he is very well-rounded and trains with submission experts. To keep Gurgel away Miller really needs to stay patient on his feet with leg kicks and jabs. This should frustrate Gurgel and force him to go for the shoot. This way Miller can take advantage and try to submit Gurgel.
Gurgel also needs to be patient and feel out the length and height disadvantage he will be faced with. If he stands and strikes he will most likely get picked apart unless he can get in close to Miller. Gurgel is, however, coming off a win whereas Miller dropped his last fight getting TKO’d by Jeremy Stephens. Gurgel’s last five fights have all gone the distance. He does not posses heavy hands and his boxing could use some work. I really doubt he will want to stand and strike with Miller. Gugel will have to dig down deep and rely on his wrestling and ground game to try and stay busy to ride out a decision win.
Most of the advantages are in Miller’s favor against Gurgel on Saturday. Unless Gurgel can surprisingly pull of a KO on Miller, I see Miller winning a 3rd round submission victory.
