I’m the first person to admit when I messed up. Last night, I definitely messed up. The total damage for the night was 0-3 and -11.2 units. When I lose bets, I always make sure that I at least learn something from the loss, otherwise it’s bound to happen again. I’ll go over a few of my thoughts from the night.
Grove vs. Cote
- This is the fight that I’m steaming over. I made a cardinal sin in sports betting by betting on a big favorite (-270). I think I overestimated the amount of people that were taking Cote in the fight, and tried to make myself believe that there were more people taking him than there actually were. I still believe Grove was the right play, just at those odds, I shouldn’t have risked so much.
Koscheck vs. St. Pierre
- Like I said in my bio over on the right side, I am pretty new to betting UFC and MMA fights. St. Pierre is a fighter that I have very little knowledge of. After watching him last night, I realized how badly I underestimated him. He really is much more of a well rounded fighter than I thought he was. There’s not a weakness in his game to expose. Koscheck did pretty well in the bout, but I think I overestimated his talent. He had a few chances to do some damage to St. Pierre, but St. Pierre is so good that he really covered up all his mistakes pretty quickly. The play was strictly a value play to begin with, and if I had to do it again I would…although it should have been about +250 and not +220.
Gonzaga vs Couture
- I can’t even imagine how bad the online sportsbooks got cooked on this fight. There was about 70% of the betting public on Couture’s side in the fight, as an UNDERDOG! This is usually a horrible sign for the underdog in sports betting. I think Gonzaga getting his nose busted early hurt him a lot. His breathing was totally messed up the rest of the fight, and you could tell he couldn’t do much. I think when Couture fights again, there will be a great opportunity to bet against him and get some good odds. After his past two fights, the general public is going to be all over him no matter what the odds are.
Other thoughts
- I think the sportsbooks are still catching up when it comes to setting the odds for UFC fights. They don’t have a lot of history to base their lines off of, so we’re seeing a lot of favorites get pretty easy wins. I have a feeling you’re going to have to pay some bigger odds to bet on the favorites in the future.
- Roger Huerta is a freak of nature. The guy’s only 24 years old and is improving so quickly. I came across this story about his childhood last night, and all I have to say is wow. Read it if you have 5 minutes. With his young age, emotional back story and good looks, Huerta will probably end up being the most marketable fighter in the UFC.
Hopefully we all learned something from UFC 74. With UFC 75 coming up, I’m going to start jumping into my research very soon.
