I updated the UFC 74 odds page with new odds from BetUS and Bodog.
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Eric Foster, a writer for the new FIGHT magazine did a column about MMA betting. It’s a solid piece for an intro to MMA betting. I went over most of the same points in my how to bet on UFC fights article.
The exciting sport of mixed-martial arts is exploding in popularity and so is interest in wagering on the fights. Until you try it, you have no idea how much having “action” on a fight can enhance the event – even if it’s only a few dollars at risk.
While it is surprisingly easy to start betting on MMA, there are some definite things you need to know to become a successful MMA bettor.
Gambling Nomenclature: A Quick Primer
Everything starts with the betting line. For example, take a line for Anderson Silva vs. Nate Marquardt at UFC 73:
Anderson Silva -185
Nate Marquardt +150The numbers listed next to a fighter’s name are known in gambling parlance as a moneyline. Moneyline bets are straight bets on the winner of an event, and are often referred to simply as “the line.” Moneyline bets are available in almost every major sport, including football and basketball.
There are two sections to a moneyline. The fighter listed with a negative number is the favorite and is being predicted to win the fight. The fighter listed with a positive number is the underdog.
The amount listed as a negative number is the amount you must wager on the favored fighter to win $100. Silva -185 means you risk $185 to win $100. A winning bet also returns your original betting stake, for a total return of $285.
The number listed with a plus sign is the amount you would win if you wagered $100 on the underdog. Nate Marquardt +150 means you risk $100 to win $150. Again, a winning bet returns your original stake for a total return of $250.
You don’t have to wager $100, you simply use this ratio to determine your payout for a larger or smaller wager according to the limits of the sportsbook where you are placing your bet. For example with Marquardt +150 you can risk as little as $5 to win $7.50 at most sites.
Converting a Line to a Percentage
Converting allows us to establish the exact percentage chance a fighter is being given to win the fight. Converting is actually a very simple bit of math. However, it is a slightly different calculation for the favorite vs. the underdog.
For the Favorite: Amount to win $1 / (Amount to win $1 + $1) = Favorite %
Take BJ Penn (-500) vs. Jens Pulver (+400) for the Ultimate Fighter 5 finale. With Penn at -500 you would wager $500 to win $100, so $5 to win $1. Plugged in to the formula: $5 / ($5 + $1) is 5 / 6 = .83 or 83%.
For the Underdog: 1 / (Amount won when wagering $1 + $1) = Underdog %
For Pulver you win $400 wagering $100. Applying that same ratio, you win $4 wagering $1. Plugging that in to the underdog formula: 1 / $4 + $1 is 1 / 5 = .20 or 20%.
You will notice the two percentages add up to more than 100%. This gap in the moneyline is how the sportsbook makes its commission.
There are a number of free calculators that you can use to do the conversion for you – hop to Yahoo.com and search for “moneyline converter” for several alternatives.
Starting to Use a Percentage to Identify Value
Identifying value is ultimately a complex process and will be the subject of future articles. To get started, understand that being a winning sports bettor is ultimately about identifying and pushing small edges for a long-term profit.
To identify these edges, start by setting your own winning percentage for a fighter and compare it against the percentage from the moneyline conversion. By identifying and betting significant differences, we build value in the long run.
If we believe a fighter should have a 25% chance of winning (+300) and we find a line offering a 20% chance of winning (+400), we have identified an edge. It may not seem like a lot, but it is actually very significant – more than enough to bet.
With the line of +400 we could bet $100 to win $400. If the “true” odds of winning were 25% and you were offered this bet four times — say four fights on a card, all +400 underdogs, each with true odds of 25% — probability dictates you would lose three times and win once. You would profit $400 from the win but lose $300 from the three losses, for a net profit of $100. Expressed another way, you would have a positive expected value of $25 on the $100 wager.
You obviously won’t win every time you identify an edge, especially an edge in an underdog. In the example above, even with the large edge identified you still expect to lose that bet three times out of four. The idea of the “long run” means the one time out of four you do win will show a profit on the series.
You can keep up with all of the MMA betting news and odds right here at the MMA Betting Blog.
